The Official Open Championship Thread

[Shades111]

So we have moved on to the final Major of the year , but we have saved the best till last , The Open championship , being hosted at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland .

course will play 7317 yards in length , par71 , with four par5's , all should be reachable in two for the longer hitters providing the wind does not get up , weather condition's will always play a major factor on a true links course with plenty of bunkers , gorse and a lot of runoff areas , as far as i know the forecast is reasonably good and we should see some quality golf , as for player course form we have little to none , the only tournament played here in the modern era was the 2012 Irish open won by Jamie Donaldson at 18 under par , major changes have been made to the golf course since then and whatever form you may look at from 7 years ago would mean very little . Rory Mciroy has shot 61 around here back in his youth but again we cant really read too much into that as it was so long ago .

bookies will be paying their usual top10 each-way , as always i strongly suggest you use the bookies that go top10 rather than taking a slightly better price and going top 6 or 7 , those extra few places far outweigh a slightly better price in my opinion .

we shall look at some of the contenders :-

we can expect the cream to come to the top over the 4 days , a lot of the usual suspects will be contending heading into the weekend , there seems to a big buzz about Jon Rahm at the moment after his win in Ireland last week , he is obviously in great form but i still have concerns about his temperament when things are not going his way . his talent is unquestionable and i do see him looming around the leaderboard on Sunday , personally he is not for me at 14/1 but he is deserving of being on anyone's shortlist of winners .

Koepka , fast becoming a Major monster , he looks to have all the shots , he has plenty of history of European tour golf as well , hits the ball long and straight , worthy favorite .

Mcilroy , obviously this is the one he wants to win , Open being held in Ireland and the huge support he will get on a course that looks fully suited to his game , form going into this is good without being spectacular , his Open championship form is solid with multiple high finishes in recent years . you just cannot discount him this week , 8/1 is tight though .

D.Johnson , not for me , looks out of form , not really much more i can say .

Woods , not seen much of him in recent weeks and that's because he is in his Major mode of old , apparently been in Portrush for a good few weeks leading up to this , after his heroics at Augusta he has the bit between his teeth once again on his quest to add more achievements to his role of honor , i believe his desire to win is as strong as it's ever been , i just cannot write this man off , links golf holds no fears for tiger , hes been here and done it multiple times and will not buckle under pressure , 14/1 , i'm liking it .

then we come to that massive group of players between 20/1-50/1 , Fowler , Rose , Schauffle , Molinari , Cantlay , Fleetwood , Scott , Stenson , Spieth , Day , Dechambeau , Matsuyama , Kuchar , Thomas , the list is huge , on the right day all these guys are capable of winning and a bunch of them will most probably fill half of the top10 come Sunday along with a couple of the top tier players .

outsider chance's ?

this is a tricky one , if you are sat waiting for me to spring out one name to get stuck into i don't really have one , we have done well so far this year with nailing a 250/1 place at the PGA and then following it up with a 500/1 place at the US Open , but i'm afraid i don't think we will be reaching such heights here , i do have a few names i will throw out which i believe to be decent value and take it as you may , Eric Van Rooyen was around 150/1 last week , i think you may find that price has been slashed since then due to his good performance so far in the Scottish open , he's a player that holds his form well and quite often gets off to a decent start , if you can still get treble figures he could be a good eachway bet .

Abraham Ancer 125/1 , another talented player that showed up reasonably well in Ireland last week , iv liked him for a while now , looks to have a wonderful temperament and expect some decent things from him in the future .

Hao Tong Li 100/1 , young gun that can play lovely golf , put in a huge final round charge at Birkdale a couple of years ago , has won a big event on the European tour , does not miss too many cuts , another very good player with a decent future .

Joaquin Niemann 175/1 , to be honest we just do not know how he may play over on these shores , he will be a duck out of water , but he's young and very talented and will hold no fears just like many of these new kids on the block now , we are moving into a new era of golfers coming through and this kid is one of the names you need to keep onside .

Adria Arnaus 250/1 , another young buck from Spain , arguably the next Spanish sensation , saw him play the final round a few weeks ago with Garcia and this kid can play , had a few decent finishes already for a player so young and raw , again another one for your future list .

iv currently had about £120 in bets and will bring that up to around £200 by Thursday kick-off time , i will put up my full list of these by then but as you can imagine a lot of them will revolve around who i have spoken highly of here , i look forward to all your posts and bets and i wish everyone that gets involved in the thread good luck , we always have a bit of fun on the Major threads and let's hope this one is no different .

good luck everyone !!

 

 

 

 

[Miller26]

That deserves a medal just for the write up mate .

[Kev40]

It's a great right up as it always is so no surprise there. I think you can't take out koepka out the occasion. He's been awesome in the majors. Would love to see Mcilroy win but he just seems to come up short so often. Won't be betting but good luck to anyone who is. 

[Shades111]

13 minutes ago, Miller26 said:

That deserves a medal just for the write up mate .

thanks miller , i enjoy doing it and glad it's appreciated .

[Miller26]

4 minutes ago, Shades111 said:

thanks miller , i enjoy doing it and glad it's appreciated .

It is mate , if I’m betting on golf which I very rarely do , your the go to man . Always have a read through either way 

[Kev40]

5 minutes ago, Miller26 said:

It is mate , if I’m betting on golf which I very rarely do , your the go to man . Always have a read through either way 

He should have a colomn in a newspaper with these write ups. 

[Luke_B_123]

Excellent as ever Shades. 

I have already got a few small e/w's on about a week back. Last few times I've seen Scott his game seems to have got back to near its best and I said I'd follow it up with a bet. 

Thomas happened to play pretty well the weekend but again I like his game at the moment. 

Ancer for reasons posted above pretty much! 

I can't back Woods, Rahm or DJ at the moment, I can't currently see them getting over the line. 

I wonder if beef may get some attention? Shot 10 under in the final round yesterday. Or a scrambler like Lowry. Can't wait for the comp to start

 

[Shades111]

well i said in OP that it would be almost impossible to break the record of the 500/1 place we had at the USopen , and i still stand by that , but maybe there is a chance of equaling it , just chucked my weekly £5 freebet from skybet on ....

500/1 Kurt Kitayama (£2.50 eachway) top 10 . 

let's go KK !!

[justnathanx]

Fleetwood (nap)

Woods 

Scott

Poulter

Backing all four 

[philinvicta]

Just backed three so far  All e/w first 8

Tiger 20/1

Beef (Andrew Johnston) 250/1 

Tyrrell Hatton 90/1

Edited July 15, 2019 by philinvicta

[Sgt_bilk0]

Thanks for the write up shades, great stuff there. Will do a few of your outsiders later on in week, I have just placed an each way bet on:

Rafa Cabrera Bello 60/1 

I know you said the course is totally different now, but he played well here at the Irish in 2012.

Good luck to all betting!

[justnathanx]

Make sure anyone backing golfers with sky don't if your not doing ew. Their win market is horrendous the each way makes it ok but your better of on betfair exchange as most of the front of the book,  top 40 golfers are 40 percent bigger on the exchange

The each way ten places is false offer. They just hammer the win part of your bet.

Woods on betfair and fleetwood 

 

Poulter arb sky bet at 66/1 and Westwood 100/1 value standout each ways with sky 

 

[philinvicta]

I just checked my bookmaker odds first ten places against the eight places of Bet365 and the price is generally 30 per cent lower eg Tiger 20/1 v 14/1    Johnston is 225/1 v 150/1  and hatton is 90/1 v 70/1   this seems a lot to give up for an extra two places.     Even if you say 10 places is 25 per cent more places against 8 on the place market (also increases the overround on the win market)   this is another case of the bookies making a "great offer"  which only seems to increase their margins.

Edited July 16, 2019 by philinvicta

[Luke_B_123]

It's a valid point and tough Phil - 

Take the Scottish open the weekend just gone - 5players all tied for 9th spot. That top 10 e/w covered 14 golfers in that instance. 

The last major (pga 2019) that kopeka won, 13 golfers in the top 8 scores, 6 tied for 8th.

Major before (masters 2019) 3 golfers tied for tied 9th, making 12 Golfers in the top 9 scores. 

If you can guarantee you're golfers gonna be up there - not many guarantees in golf - but maybe if your backing a Mcilroy or Koepka then there's probably value in taking the higher price with less places. 

I think when your looking for longer prices, the 25-40/1+ golfers, you they are unlikely to win, so your only really considering your e/w markets which are usually 1/4 or 1/5 the odds? Let's take Hatton from above, does it really make a huge difference if you have a tenner each way at say 90/1 - 70/1.

90/1 would pay 190 (Inc stake) 

70/1 would pay 150 (Inc stake) 

You could potentially cover 2,3 maybe even sometimes 7 other golfers with a e/w to top 10. This way you get some return (minus the dead heat rules) rather than risk the 40 quid profit and miss out those extra places. 

The beef odds do seem a big drop, but you can do exchanges. I'd generally edge for 10 places over bigger odds the majority of the time, and this one isn't an exception, would think with Links golf you could have a lot of players bunched up on similar scores. 

 

[Solario333]

On 14/07/2019 at 12:03, Miller26 said:

That deserves a medal just for the write up mate .

I entirely agree wth @Miller26 --- your write up is very knowledgeable  ....and gives those who don't have a clue a good guide to the reality of the Open.  I have backed Woods Cantlay and Reed , and thrown in a hatful of others after reading your very honest opinion --- Ive been betting golf a long time , but only on the majors --- Im about 425 up this year mainly to Brooks Koepka and Woods .... but the Masters was a flop for me --- just broke even .....

Keep up the Good work @Shades111 we need your knowledge and appreciate the time you take to make your assessment.....

and it deserves a spin on the wheel @MrUKHackz don't you agree ???

Edited July 16, 2019 by Solario333

[Solario333]

 

 

So we have moved on to the final Major of the year , but we have saved the best till last , The Open championship , being hosted at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland .

course will play 7317 yards in length , par71 , with four par5's , all should be reachable in two for the longer hitters providing the wind does not get up , weather condition's will always play a major factor on a true links course with plenty of bunkers , gorse and a lot of runoff areas , as far as i know the forecast is reasonably good and we should see some quality golf , as for player course form we have little to none , the only tournament played here in the modern era was the 2012 Irish open won by Jamie Donaldson at 18 under par , major changes have been made to the golf course since then and whatever form you may look at from 7 years ago would mean very little . Rory Mciroy has shot 61 around here back in his youth but again we cant really read too much into that as it was so long ago .

bookies will be paying their usual top10 each-way , as always i strongly suggest you use the bookies that go top10 rather than taking a slightly better price and going top 6 or 7 , those extra few places far outweigh a slightly better price in my opinion .

we shall look at some of the contenders :-

we can expect the cream to come to the top over the 4 days , a lot of the usual suspects will be contending heading into the weekend , there seems to a big buzz about Jon Rahm at the moment after his win in Ireland last week , he is obviously in great form but i still have concerns about his temperament when things are not going his way . his talent is unquestionable and i do see him looming around the leaderboard on Sunday , personally he is not for me at 14/1 but he is deserving of being on anyone's shortlist of winners .

Koepka , fast becoming a Major monster , he looks to have all the shots , he has plenty of history of European tour golf as well , hits the ball long and straight , worthy favorite .

Mcilroy , obviously this is the one he wants to win , Open being held in Ireland and the huge support he will get on a course that looks fully suited to his game , form going into this is good without being spectacular , his Open championship form is solid with multiple high finishes in recent years . you just cannot discount him this week , 8/1 is tight though .

D.Johnson , not for me , looks out of form , not really much more i can say .

Woods , not seen much of him in recent weeks and that's because he is in his Major mode of old , apparently been in Portrush for a good few weeks leading up to this , after his heroics at Augusta he has the bit between his teeth once again on his quest to add more achievements to his role of honor , i believe his desire to win is as strong as it's ever been , i just cannot write this man off , links golf holds no fears for tiger , hes been here and done it multiple times and will not buckle under pressure , 14/1 , i'm liking it .

then we come to that massive group of players between 20/1-50/1 , Fowler , Rose , Schauffle , Molinari , Cantlay , Fleetwood , Scott , Stenson , Spieth , Day , Dechambeau , Matsuyama , Kuchar , Thomas , the list is huge , on the right day all these guys are capable of winning and a bunch of them will most probably fill half of the top10 come Sunday along with a couple of the top tier players .

outsider chance's ?

this is a tricky one , if you are sat waiting for me to spring out one name to get stuck into i don't really have one , we have done well so far this year with nailing a 250/1 place at the PGA and then following it up with a 500/1 place at the US Open , but i'm afraid i don't think we will be reaching such heights here , i do have a few names i will throw out which i believe to be decent value and take it as you may , Eric Van Rooyen was around 150/1 last week , i think you may find that price has been slashed since then due to his good performance so far in the Scottish open , he's a player that holds his form well and quite often gets off to a decent start , if you can still get treble figures he could be a good eachway bet .

Abraham Ancer 125/1 , another talented player that showed up reasonably well in Ireland last week , iv liked him for a while now , looks to have a wonderful temperament and expect some decent things from him in the future .

Hao Tong Li 100/1 , young gun that can play lovely golf , put in a huge final round charge at Birkdale a couple of years ago , has won a big event on the European tour , does not miss too many cuts , another very good player with a decent future .

Joaquin Niemann 175/1 , to be honest we just do not know how he may play over on these shores , he will be a duck out of water , but he's young and very talented and will hold no fears just like many of these new kids on the block now , we are moving into a new era of golfers coming through and this kid is one of the names you need to keep onside .

Adria Arnaus 250/1 , another young buck from Spain , arguably the next Spanish sensation , saw him play the final round a few weeks ago with Garcia and this kid can play , had a few decent finishes already for a player so young and raw , again another one for your future list .

iv currently had about £120 in bets and will bring that up to around £200 by Thursday kick-off time , i will put up my full list of these by then but as you can imagine a lot of them will revolve around who i have spoken highly of here , i look forward to all your posts and bets and i wish everyone that gets involved in the thread good luck , we always have a bit of fun on the Major threads and let's hope this one is no different .

good luck everyone !!

In fact I nominate this for Post of the Month !!! @Rocknrolla !!! @MrUKHackz !!! so you can consider it amongst other contributions  ,perhaps..... 

anyone second my nomination ???

Edited July 16, 2019 by Solario333

[Solario333]

On 15/07/2019 at 09:35, Luke_B_123 said:

Excellent as ever Shades. 

I have already got a few small e/w's on about a week back. Last few times I've seen Scott his game seems to have got back to near its best and I said I'd follow it up with a bet. 

Thomas happened to play pretty well the weekend but again I like his game at the moment. 

Ancer for reasons posted above pretty much! 

I can't back Woods, Rahm or DJ at the moment, I can't currently see them getting over the line. 

I wonder if beef may get some attention? Shot 10 under in the final round yesterday. Or a scrambler like Lowry. Can't wait for the comp to start

 

Good shout on Adam scott , I have been following him for 2 years !! 

[philinvicta]

It might be worth looking at the First Round Leader market  for this as well.   I have backed Tiger at 30/1 each way first 5  .   He is out later in the day and so should get a good look at the TV coverage  before he goes out.

[Solario333]

1 hour ago, philinvicta said:

It might be worth looking at the First Round Leader market  for this as well.   I have backed Tiger at 30/1 each way first 5  .   He is out later in the day and so should get a good look at the TV coverage  before he goes out.

I have also backed Tiger on Betfair , and each way on Unibet  . 7n places 50% ENHANCED ODDS /30/1 ..... £20 MAX ......     

I do like the 26/1 offered for koepka to be first round leader --- so tempting .......but there are 100 others who might have the game of their lives --- Jason Day , or Xander shuafele ....

Edited July 16, 2019 by Solario333

[Adz Adzy]

Love the golf, i see some bookies have gone 10 ways for each way, i usually do ew doubles on the pga & european tour most weeks, but just gone for the open this week. i noticed they changed it from par 72 to par 71 and changed a couple of holes, should look good on the tv, also be interesting to see how Woods does, gone for these =

T.Fleetwood 28/1

S.Lowry 45/1

G.McDowell 55/1

T.Hatton 70/1

A.Noren 100/1

C.Smith 200/1

also done a couple of specials with paddys

[Shades111]

thought i would share this on this thread rather than our weekly one , as it does have an OPEN tune to it .

for people that do not follow the weekly thread we managed a couple of winners of late with Enoch on the challenge tour at 70/1 and also backing the young gun Matthew Wolf in the final round at 15/2 on the same day , rather than do my usual thing and put all the money into play on future events such as this i decided on treating myself ...

see you in 2020 Royal St Georges !!

 

[Luke_B_123]

How much shades if you don't mind me asking? Pm if so.

I've never been to a major. I've only ever watched golf live on the TV (and love it) and as I'm coming to the age where I'll have to pack footie in soon, I'm tempted to pick up the golf soon ish. 

You been to a major before? 

[Shades111]

30 minutes ago, Luke_B_123 said:

How much shades if you don't mind me asking? Pm if so.

I've never been to a major. I've only ever watched golf live on the TV (and love it) and as I'm coming to the age where I'll have to pack footie in soon, I'm tempted to pick up the golf soon ish. 

You been to a major before? 

hi mate , 

day1 £85

day2 £85

day3 £95

day4 £95

yes i was at birkdale 2 years ago and been to two ryder cups as well , been to various european tour events as well , my sister was in the industry and i would get a few freebie tickets here and there ,  sadly shes retired now and i have to pay my own way now .

if you were thinking of going i would strongly suggest getting your tickets as soon as you can , portrush was sold out very early and RSG will be sold out early as well as it's only in Kent and easily accessible unlike when its held in scotland and too far out the way . 

big problem now with huge sporting events is the big ticket tout firms buying up huge amounts of tickets and then ripping people off by charging them 3x 4x the original price , i was on stubhub earlier and they have tickets for this year and next year and they are selling them around £300 a day , some are more than that !!

[justnathanx]

[Shades111]

think im ready , spread the money out on a variety of players , i have totally opposed the man i have raved about all season #Schauffle , just hope that does not come back to haunt me . but at the end of the day we just cannot back everyone and top players will have to be left out .

it's pretty much common knowledge now that i tend to go against the masses with my picks , with 10 places available on each-way bets i like to look at players of value and what i believe to be overpriced and if play well enough are fully capable of getting in that top10 and perhaps even challenging for the win .

so here is my final list in no particular order ;-

£35 win Woods 18/1 just cant write him off

£15 win Day 35/1 quiet season , due to peak

£4 EW Van Rooyen 150/1 playing well all season , overdue a win

£4 EW Arnaus 250/1 up + coming young buck

£6 EW HT Li 100/1 really good player , overpriced in my opinion

£6 win Reed 66/1 plays hot + cold , worth a £6 risk

£4 EW Walker 300/1 out of form , more a sentimental bet as i like him

£8 EW Ancer 125/1 solid player , worth following

£4 EW Niemann 175/1 young up + comer , could surprise

£2.50 EW Kitayama 500/1 always like a biggie , he's my pick

£6 EW Sullivan 125/1 playing some good stuff at moment

£8 EW Spieth 35/1 if he shows form , beware

£8 EW Fitzpatrick 60/1 dangerous when on form , recent results improving

£4 EW An 150/1 results do not do him justice , good player

£6 win Thomas 28/1 coming back from injury , still dangerous

£6 EW Oleson 100/1 can grind it out , capable when on form

£25 win Mcilroy 9/1 he has to go well

will sit on this little lot , doubtful i will do anymore , deposit limits have been reached !!

good luck all , let's have a good one !!