Guest Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 18 hours ago, Denman said: So the first one, looks pretty decent. I'd be extremely wary of Burkes in that race, been gelded, gone over to France and won nicely, very good breeding and the Bloodstock Agency that purchased it has excellent results... and thats without looking at anything else in the race... Your 2nd one out is the the bookmakers bread and butter sort of selection. 6 runners, 2 races amongst all of them, top trainers, top jockeys, top owners, you're kind of going in blind on those sorts of races unless you "know someone", any single one of those could be top top horses or they might all be shite. I would probably favour a horse with a run under its belt in those types of races, but it doesn't mean a huge amount. I'd probably have a blind punt on the Godolphin runner in that race, they get a good strike with 2 year olds, its nice price, really interesting breeding. Don't get me wrong, the favourite is the probable winner as the odds dictate, its also a very expensive horse (€850,000), but theres so many variable factors involved, theres no way it is a good bet. That was a very little, 14/1 boomie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crunchie Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Denman said: That was a very little, 14/1 boomie. chucked it in my PP after your little write up, some top trainers had horses in the race that could be anything you don't get many of theirs winning at double figure odds in a season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crunchie Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 @Denman as were talking about shorties, surely horses like Gas monkey in the 5.15Donny and Ajrar in the 6.10Bev are both so well in, and you know the oppo isn't up to much, be a surprise if they are beaten, and would have been a safer bet with fewer unknowns. 2 more and i might consider a 4 timer.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirbetsalot Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Lord in red is the first in my lucky 15. Also got a rfc with it and little windmill 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Slasher McGurk Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Crunchienut said: @Denman as were talking about shorties, surely horses like Gas monkey in the 5.15Donny and Ajrar in the 6.10Bev are both so well in, and you know the oppo isn't up to much, be a surprise if they are beaten, and would have been a safer bet with fewer unknowns. 2 more and i might consider a 4 timer.... Ship Of The Fen in the next at Sandown is a fav I like the chances of, 13/8 is a bit on the short side as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crunchie Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Sirbetsalot said: Lord in red is the first in my lucky 15. Also got a rfc with it and little windmill I got lord in red too in my bets. GL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Crunchienut said: chucked it in my PP after your little write up, some top trainers had horses in the race that could be anything you don't get many of theirs winning at double figure odds in a season To be fair, I have often had a nice priced Godolphin runner. That particular horse has very interesting breeding as I noted, the combination of the Sire and the Dam's Sire made it somewhat worth a punt in my opinion. You're basically talking progeny littered in Derby winners, Breeders Cup Winners, Winx (gets its own category!) and so on. My feeling was this is probably one of the horses that they extremely high hopes for... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crunchie Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Mad Slasher McGurk said: Ship Of The Fen in the next at Sandown is a fav I like the chances of, 13/8 is a bit on the short side as well. Got him too, I just had a feeling someone mentioned him the other day. only in my PP as like you said probably too short for a wager on its own. GL if your having a nibble 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Slasher McGurk Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Just now, Crunchienut said: Got him too, I just had a feeling someone mentioned him the other day. only in my PP as like you said probably too short for a wager on its own. GL if your having a nibble I've just done a treble with the two you mentioned, £10 returns just short of £100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crunchie Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Mad Slasher McGurk said: I've just done a treble with the two you mentioned, £10 returns just short of £100. haha cheers, no pressure. I can live with a tenner being lost. I mean strictly on the weights they can't lose. ajrar, is over 2st well in.... but been running averagely of late to say the least against a lot better horses. What prices were they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crunchie Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 MINI BOOM! I haven't blanked today, thank fudge for that Quadpot at newton abbot in. Phew! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Slasher McGurk Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Just now, Crunchienut said: haha cheers, no pressure. I can live with a tenner being lost. I mean strictly on the weights they can't lose. ajrar, is over 2st well in.... but been running averagely of late to say the least against a lot better horses. What prices were they? Gas Monkey @ 8/13 Ajrar @ 6/5 Ship Of The Fen @ 7/4 returns £97.84 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crunchie Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, Sirbetsalot said: Lord in red is the first in my lucky 15. Also got a rfc with it and little windmill Sweet!.....unlucky with the r/f @Sirbetsalot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Slasher McGurk Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Went out like a light Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirbetsalot Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Beer with the boys disappointing also. Need Echo du large in the 4.55 and dettori in 4.45 for a return in my lucky 15 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crunchie Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mad Slasher McGurk said: Went out like a light PP down....I wouldn't have done any of those tbh. Fudge. Unlucky on the bet, trying to find a treble as i type Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Slasher McGurk Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Crunchienut said: PP down....I wouldn't have done any of those tbh. Fudge. Unlucky on the bet, trying to find a treble as i type There is always Morocco and / or Senegal if you need a 1/2 shot to complete a treble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, Crunchienut said: @Denman as were talking about shorties, surely horses like Gas monkey in the 5.15Donny and Ajrar in the 6.10Bev are both so well in, and you know the oppo isn't up to much, be a surprise if they are beaten, and would have been a safer bet with fewer unknowns. 2 more and i might consider a 4 timer.... Well, you understand the form so you don't need me to make a case for either of them. I can certainly spot some negatives from a betting perspective however; 5.15 - 1/5 odds paying the first 3. Favourite is 4/6.... £100 @ 4/6 returns £166.67 (£66.67 profit)... So lets think of the places, 10/1 placed @ £50 each way is going to return £150 (£50 profit). 12/1 placed is going to return £170 (£70 profit). Of course you also get the chance of the win, which would make those each way bets vastly more profitable than a win bet on the favourite. Without looking at any form, I would say if you can pick out one of those outsiders that you think could potentially go close, its a far superior bet to the favourite. I personally don't ever really bet each way however. So I'd either dodge the race or have a real good study of those outsiders and look for one that might have been unlucky in the last few starts or whatever.. 6.10 - Its a really....really.....really....really.... bad race. The favourite has obvious strong claims. I'd be concerned about the gamble on Roger Fellls, but that is the sort of race that I just skip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Just as an addition. The gamble on Fells maybe meanmingless, his horses are going incredibly well at current so it may just be attracting money for that reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirbetsalot Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Echo du large in the 4.55 for some returns back on the L15. Last bet of the day 5.05 Sandown No3 Club Tropicana win No13 Ad Valorem queen ew GlGl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crunchie Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, Denman said: Well, you understand the form so you don't need me to make a case for either of them. I can certainly spot some negatives from a betting perspective however; 5.15 - 1/5 odds paying the first 3. Favourite is 4/6.... £100 @ 4/6 returns £166.67 (£66.67 profit)... So lets think of the places, 10/1 placed @ £50 each way is going to return £150 (£50 profit). 12/1 placed is going to return £170 (£70 profit). Of course you also get the chance of the win, which would make those each way bets vastly more profitable than a win bet on the favourite. Without looking at any form, I would say if you can pick out one of those outsiders that you think could potentially go close, its a far superior bet to the favourite. I personally don't ever really bet each way however. So I'd either dodge the race or have a real good study of those outsiders and look for one that might have been unlucky in the last few starts or whatever.. 6.10 - Its a really....really.....really....really.... bad race. The favourite has obvious strong claims. I'd be concerned about the gamble on Roger Fellls, but that is the sort of race that I just skip. might just see if i can quickly find an ew double/treble in the races to back it up. £100 hahaha..... I done a £5 treble brb...im not greedy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirbetsalot Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, Sirbetsalot said: Echo du large in the 4.55 for some returns back on the L15. Last bet of the day 5.05 Sandown No3 Club Tropicana win No13 Ad Valorem queen ew GlGl So close. Gl lads not to be today 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Slasher McGurk Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Gas Monkey had plenty of gas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, Crunchienut said: might just see if i can quickly find an ew double/treble in the races to back it up. £100 hahaha..... I done a £5 treble brb...im not greedy Well yeah, it was just for the sake of having a level stake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangers Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 18:00 Chelmsford - Brigand @ 2/1 Danger - Ventriloquist @ 7/1 Both To Win 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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