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The Ukraine situation


Blacko

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On 30/09/2022 at 02:17, crazyrightmeow said:

Well it was pretty clear people dont care about that when a ton of people ran from Syria and similar countries (where the world was bombing and shooting them) to Europe and we know what was the public reaction to that. Im not saying everyone is like that but I think a lot of people dont care about middle east at all.
But I agree that there are a lot of people like you said as well.

I don't overly agree with this, most people wouldn't agree with what's happening in Syria etc but it isn't pushed in our face on a daily basis and impacting our way of life. At school we learned about European history not Middle Eastern. Ukraine want to be in the EU, Syria will never be able to. Its not about people not caring, but they feel more connected to this and its on our doorstep effectively and we have had direct nuclear threats made on the country we live in. Its impacting the cost of living etc. 

Why did you use Syria and the Middle East as an example and not what happens in Africa? Because Syria is still globally publicised and has more recency bias, its not as publicised as Ukraine but more than Africa to make you know whats happening. You appear just as guilty of what you are berating people over for the Ukraine by giving the example of Syria, you picked one that still has had a fair bit of global coverage which is why you are aware of it. The point I'm making is its human nature to be like this, especially when it's on your doorstep. We just want to work, pay our mortgage and be with friends and family. Most people care but also don't have a personal quota of outrage and attention we divide equally amongst conflicts in the world, thats dictated by other factors.

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2 hours ago, kirsty0312 said:

I think if they do, it will go in stages.

We'll hear about them moving them around to cause fear, then they may *test* near open waters to instill more fear. 

If they can't get the western world to back off doing that, the next step would be nuclear on a rural areas with minimal casualties to show they will. Then.. maybe.

But alot will happen between then. Just my 2ps worth.

I'm closely watching the China/Taiwan situation too.

 

54 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

It has been made pretty clear that if they use nuclear weapons  that many western allies will step up  actions against Russia  and may get involved. pretty sure the Poles  and some others would gladly accept a reason to get involved.


I have no doubt Trident will be sitting deep in the Baltic sea somewhere, the American subs stopped at Faslane in July so I assume they will also be thereabouts. Look at this fucking monster the Russians have in their fleet 👀

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.ie/news/9503713/warning-putin-deploys-submarine-nuclear-apocalypse-drone/amp/

Edited by Blacko
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Just read this, what do you think @philinvicta

Vladimir Putin is likely to be overthrown as part of a “coup” – but his replacement could be far worse, a former UK spy chief has warned.

The Russian president has intensified the bombardment on Ukrainian cities in recent days following a series of battlefield setbacks, with Liz Truss and the G7 accusing him of committing war crimes.

The air strikes follow a series of battlefield humiliations and a high-profile attack on the strategically important Kerch Bridge last weekend, that have prompted Putin to respond in a series of deadly attacks that have killed many civilians.

But Sir Alex Younger, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service from 2014 to 2020, believes Putin's latest actions are a further example of the weak position the Russian president is now in six months after the invasion was launched.

Younger believes the current “intensive bombardment” is a sign that Putin is “out of options” and “has no choice but to double down” to appease domestic forces that want him to show ever-increasing displays of strength towards Ukraine and the West.

Asked what could trigger a coup in the Kremlin that would depose Putin, Younger told BBC’s Newsnight: “Putin is in danger of being outflanked by the very political constituency he created – the chauvinistic, nationalistic, arguably fascistic right-wing…

“That was his support base that is now castigating him for not going far and harder enough.

"These measures – that he didn’t want to introduce because he knows how counter-productive they can be – are entirely for a domestic audience and designed to neuter that aspect of the politics.

Younger added that the potential downside of a coup is that any successor to Putin could be even more extreme.

“We have to be careful what we wish for," he said. "I think he will be replaced in due course by critics on the [extreme] right.”

 

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1 hour ago, MrUKHackz said:

Just read this, what do you think @philinvicta

Vladimir Putin is likely to be overthrown as part of a “coup” – but his replacement could be far worse, a former UK spy chief has warned.

The Russian president has intensified the bombardment on Ukrainian cities in recent days following a series of battlefield setbacks, with Liz Truss and the G7 accusing him of committing war crimes.

The air strikes follow a series of battlefield humiliations and a high-profile attack on the strategically important Kerch Bridge last weekend, that have prompted Putin to respond in a series of deadly attacks that have killed many civilians.

But Sir Alex Younger, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service from 2014 to 2020, believes Putin's latest actions are a further example of the weak position the Russian president is now in six months after the invasion was launched.

Younger believes the current “intensive bombardment” is a sign that Putin is “out of options” and “has no choice but to double down” to appease domestic forces that want him to show ever-increasing displays of strength towards Ukraine and the West.

Asked what could trigger a coup in the Kremlin that would depose Putin, Younger told BBC’s Newsnight: “Putin is in danger of being outflanked by the very political constituency he created – the chauvinistic, nationalistic, arguably fascistic right-wing…

“That was his support base that is now castigating him for not going far and harder enough.

"These measures – that he didn’t want to introduce because he knows how counter-productive they can be – are entirely for a domestic audience and designed to neuter that aspect of the politics.

Younger added that the potential downside of a coup is that any successor to Putin could be even more extreme.

“We have to be careful what we wish for," he said. "I think he will be replaced in due course by critics on the [extreme] right.”

 

I have seen several "experts" who have said that people say they want Putin overthrown  but these people tend to think that any new person might want to make up with the rest of the world and come back into a more friendly alliance.  They say  he will most likely be overthrown by somebody who will set out push on with the "mighty Russia" program and have said one of the reasons he has stepped up actions against Ukraine is to try and  stop these types overthrowing him.

As I said earlier in the thread I believe that Middle Eastern countries are also leaning more towards Russia and China  and I saw that Biden came out criticising Saudi Arabia after the OPEC+  proposed oil production cut in November (this has led to a price increase in US gasoline prices going into the mid term election   coincidence ?).

To be honest I think a lot of these nations have decided that if the so called  developed nations want to exploit all of their assets such as oil  gas etc then they will have to pay for them at a rate that means the nations with such assets get to benefit and not just  provide them for the benefit of European and US economies.

The way that China has been investing in Africa  so that it gets a "first dibs" on African assets means that the old world order of European  and the USA being able to exploit the rest of the world  for their benefit without improving the lot of those nations and the standard of living  of its inhabitants is ending.

China is also not being seen to overly committing to Russia aid because it does not want sanctions imposed on it (Biden has recently put a stop to some trade) but if a combined Russia/ China/Middle East alliance was to emerge to challenge the old order there could be an awful lot of unrest and falling living standards in the Western nations.  Western nations seem to be pushing the green energy agenda but that battery technology will also need an awful lot of imported commodities  to make the batteries needed to store the generated electricity whether in the home or for vehicles.

I can really see somebody taking over in Russia who will spend more money in trying to unsettle Western nations as it looks like has been happening  in recent times which could push agendas that will cause even more problems.  I would not be surprised to see them for instance get involved in funding a push for  Scottish  independence hoping to further undermine the UK. If this is working I would not be surprised to see China sending money in to help them out. There will be plenty more of the brigades  shouting that Western governments are evil and wrongdoers  only looking after their own interests  and before they know it  future generations will be far worse off.   Remember China has a history of patience with policies that might take generations to come through  but know they will get there in the end,  

All eyes are on Russia  ( remember that Churchill said Russia would be the problem for the West after the 2nd World War  but the younger generation just have him down as a racist old bigot without any sense of the times he was raised in)  and I am sure China is just waiting to seize any opportunities that may arise to improve its own lot. There is nothing to even say that any new Russian leader may be Chinese backed to overthrow Putin.

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  • 3 weeks later...

@philinvicta what do you reckon with the Ukrainian situation so far?, you may shoot me down for thinking this but I reckon a sit down is going to be required at some point. Putin and his regime ain’t going nowhere fast, he is there for the long run until common ground has been reached. Negotiations will have to be put in place at some point. Would I be deluded to think that the wheeler and dealer ex president Trump would have sat at the table instead of the incoherent Biden who constantly seems lost in confusion?

Edited by Blacko
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1 minute ago, Blacko said:

@philinvicta what do you reckon with the Ukrainian situation so far?, you may shoot me down for thinking this but I reckon a sit down is going to be required at some point. Putin and his regime ain’t going nowhere fast, he is there for the long run until common ground has been reached. Negotiations will have to be put in place at some point, would I be deluded to think that the wheeler and dealer ex president Trump would have sat at the table instead of the incoherent Biden who constantly seems lost in confusion?

There will be no negotiations whilst there are Russian troops on Ukrainian ground in my opinion.  I can see a lull over the winter as things will get hard with the weather.  I expect that the Ukrainian aims over next few weeks will be to cut Russian supply lines  so that their troops really suffer during the winter and will not be an effective force come the spring. If the Europeans and other allies want this to be over sooner then they need to step up and send more stuff to the Ukrainians so they can get the Russians out.  The Russian supplies of late seem to be getting poorer and poorer standard of weapons.

I agree that Putin will hang on to power and is unlikely to be defeated in the Russian elections due 2024  and as I have said if he is got rid off sooner it is likely to be by someone who will be no better. 

It would appear that an awful lot of Russians  are fleeing the country as well as some relatives of Russian soldiers are starting to wake up what shit conditions they are in and I can only see this getting more common the longer this goes on.

Even if Trump gets back in power he will have to side with the Ukrainians in my opinion or there could be massive fall out amongst NATO nations

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Russia says UK navy blew up Nord Stream

Mystery solved, I guess 😃

 

There's also a theory of it being an accident:

Quote

I work in oil and gas. The industry now believes that Russia attempted to evacuate (recover) the gas in these lines (which was worth a LOT of money) by lowering pressure which caused a flow assurance issue where methane hydrate formed and ruptured the gas line. In other words Russians pwned themselves.

 

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3 hours ago, Fudge said:

There's also a theory of it being an accident:

Quote

I work in oil and gas. The industry now believes that Russia attempted to evacuate (recover) the gas in these lines (which was worth a LOT of money) by lowering pressure which caused a flow assurance issue where methane hydrate formed and ruptured the gas line. In other words Russians pwned themselves.

 

Not sure if I buy this, I'm no expert on gas pipelines but Nordstream 1 and 2 are 2 kilometers apart.  The hole in the Nordstream 1 pipeline was 50 meters wide so could the explosion in one also damage the other one 2 kilometers away?

Also if the investigation team found it was Russia surely they would be shouting it from the rooftops, the fact they are trying to memory hole it makes it look like it was someone else that did it.  

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1 hour ago, Blacko said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-11374179/Astrologer-warns-three-months-rollercoaster-thanks-MARS-Retrograde.html
 

@philinvicta Just when u think things can’t get any worse it turns out even Mars is joining in stopping us aulder guys getting a hardon 😠

Well if you are struggling with that then I suggest the old Mars trick!   However with the size reductions nowadays I doubt they give the same "satisfaction"  as they did in the 60s

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  • 2 weeks later...

Russia today sent a massive number of missiles into Ukraine in an effort to damage infrastructure but latest reports say that a couple of missiles have landed in Poland which is a NATO territory.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-official-says-russian-missiles-hit-poland-killing-2-associated-press-2022-11-15/

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-missiles-kill-two-people-in-nato-member-poland-us-intelligence-official-says-12748369

I would not think it would take a lot for Poland to go steaming in to Belarus to take out the Russian troops recently stationed there 

Edited by philinvicta
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2 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

Russia today sent a massive number of missiles into Ukraine in an effort to damage infrastructure but latest reports say that a couple of missiles have landed in Poland which is a NATO territory.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-official-says-russian-missiles-hit-poland-killing-2-associated-press-2022-11-15/

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-missiles-kill-two-people-in-nato-member-poland-us-intelligence-official-says-12748369

I would not think it would take a lot for Poland to go steaming in to Belarus to take out the Russian troops recently stationed there 

I know it’s a completely different scenario but the Gleiwitz incident sprang to mind when I heard this in the news tonight, provocation is what we don’t need during these times but I wouldn’t rule out the Russian government considering it.

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11 minutes ago, Blacko said:

I know it’s a completely different scenario but the Gleiwitz incident sprang to mind when I heard this in the news tonight, provocation is what we don’t need during these times but I wouldn’t rule out the Russian government considering it.

Putin has past form for false flag attacks to allow him to attack his enemies in the same way that Germany attacked its own at Gleiwitz as an excuse to invade Poland. It just shows how outdated the Russian tactics as well as many of their weapons really are.  In this case and the fact that many weapons were aimed as far across as Lviv I would imagine it is another case of Russian missiles not being very accurate.  I would expect Poland and those eastern nations to call a meeting of NATO though.

I saw reports early in the invasion  that if NATO troops and equipment was to be sent in it is likely that they could retake Ukrainian territory in about 96 hours !

No doubt many NATO troops are currently on a heightened state of stand by  awaiting reports as I doubt that despite Russian protestations it would not be hard to prove where they came from. 

Maybe time for Blair to rob some students thesis again for the required evidence.

 

 

Edited by philinvicta
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  • 2 months later...

@philinvicta it’s been a while since we commented on this thread. Do u feel that we are starting to poke the bear by Germany’s recent forced intervention and the West by supplying tanks to the Ukrainians?, in now reading the Zelenski is looking for jet fighters also. I reckon we’re getting into territory where one wrong move could lead to major escalation,

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26 minutes ago, Blacko said:

@philinvicta it’s been a while since we commented on this thread. Do u feel that we are starting to poke the bear by Germany’s recent forced intervention and the West by supplying tanks to the Ukrainians?, in now reading the Zelenski is looking for jet fighters also. I reckon we’re getting into territory where one wrong move could lead to major escalation,

I feel exactly the same.

I worry that if putin is backed into a corner he will go for broke and we all know what that means.

It's horrendous for Ukraine,  but fact is they are not in nato so zelenski shouldn't be demanding anything

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1 hour ago, david1111 said:

I feel exactly the same.

I worry that if putin is backed into a corner he will go for broke and we all know what that means.

It's horrendous for Ukraine,  but fact is they are not in nato so zelenski shouldn't be demanding anything

Putin must go puts me in mind of Assad must go and it's entirely possible Zelensky might go before Putin does, something is going on what with practically his entire cabinet being removed or resigning for corruption and that helicoper crash that took out his Interior Minister and much of the Ministery staff, even Klitshcko is starting to lose patience with Zelensky.  I think things are getting way out hand.  Putin thought Ukraine would come to terms immediately after his initial attack and the atrocities carried out against the Donbass region would stop and it would be safely returned to Russia, he never envisaged the collective West being prepared to fight to the last Ukranian or the Ukranians actually being willing to go along with it which it appears they are coming to the realisation they are not.

In turn the West thought Russia would collapse immediately under heavy sanctions and they never envisaged that the Russian economy was far more resiliant than they realised or that many other nations would ignore the order to completely shun them.  This is what happens when the sanctioned world becomes larger than the unsanctioned world and every country that's ever been the victim of Western shitfuckery is secretly rooting for Russia.  So the long game plays out and it's one the Russians have prepared for and the West has not.

It's ultimately going to have to end up with boots on the ground for NATO and the US, this latest wonderweapon framing of the narrative is not working first it was Patriots, then it was the m777 Howitzers and then the Himars, these were all "game changers" and would turn the tide of the war. You don't hear about these any more and now it's the Panzers and Challengers  that are to be the game changers and when these are all wiped out it's going to be fighter jets up next.

What gets me is absolutely nobody is making any effort to talk peace or de-escalation, the UK parliament all voted unanimously to send the Challenger tanks there was not one single voice with any kind of alternative to offer.  Germany were brow beaten into compliance, with their history I imagine they want no part in facilitating WW3 but they could not win either way, if they are the only nation not to send weapons they get the blame for Ukraines defeat and if they do there are Panzer tanks bearing down on Russia again and this unifies and galvanises Russia.

Whatever happens next one thing is certain Russia is done with Europe, every nation suppling weapons to fight them will be remembered and Merkels admission that NATO never had any intention of signing the MINSK agreement and was only buying time to train Ukraine to fight them was the last straw.  This means no more cheap energy for Europes manufacturing powerhouse Germany and they must now pay 4 to 7 times more for energy from the US.  This was always second prize for the US to be able to cannabalise Europe to keep them going and try and kick start their manufacturing base again.

As you say Ukraine is not in NATO, before Russia attacked they were simply too corrupt to have anything to do with and after they are now a shining beacon of freedom and democracy, they are certainly not worth sleepwalking into WW3 for, I always wondered how people could possibly be steered into WW2 and now I am seeing in real time how easy it is.

 

Edited by Mad Slasher McGurk
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8 minutes ago, Mad Slasher McGurk said:

Putin must go puts me in mind of Assad must go and it's entirely possible Zelensky might go before Putin does, something is going on what with practically his entire cabinet being removed or resigning for corruption and that helicoper crash that took out his Interior Minister and much of the Ministery staff, even Klitshcko is starting to lose patience with Zelensky.  I think things are getting way out hand.  Putin thought Ukraine would come to terms immediately after his initial attack and the atrocities carried out against the Donbass region would stop and it would be safely returned to Russia, he never envisaged the collective West being prepared to fight to the last Ukranian or the Ukranians actually being willing to go along with it which it appears they are coming to the realisation they are not.

In turn the West thought Russia would collapse immediately under heavy sanctions and they never envisaged that the Russian economy was far more resiliant than they realised or that many other nations would ignore the order to completely shun them.  This is what happens when the sanctioned world becomes larger than the unsanctioned world and every country that's ever been the victim of Western shitfuckery is secretly rooting for Russia.  So the long game plays out and it's one the Russians have prepared for and the West has not.

It's ultimately going to have to end up with boots on the ground for NATO and the US, this latest wonderweapon framing of the narrative is not working first it was Patriots, then it was the m777 Howitzers and then the Himars, these were all "game changers" and would turn the tide of the war. You don't hear about these any more and now it's the Panzers and Challengers  that are to be the game changers and when these are all wiped out it's going to be fighter jets up next.

What gets me is absolutely nobody is making any effort to talk peace or de-escalation, the UK parliament all voted unanimously to send the Challenger tanks there was not one single voice with any kind of alternative to offer.  Germany were brow beaten into compliance, with their history I imagine they want no part in facilitating WW3 but they could not win either way, if they are the only nation not to send weapons they get the blame for Ukraines defeat and if they do there are Panzer tanks bearing down on Russia again and this unifies and galvanises Russia.

Whatever happens next one thing is certain Russia is done with Europe, every nation suppling weapons to fight them will be remembered and Merkels admission that NATO never had any intention of signing the MINSK agreement and was only buying time to train Ukraine to fight them was the last straw.  This means no more cheap energy for Europes manufacturing powerhouse Germany and they must now pay 4 to 7 times more for energy from the US.  This was always second prize for the US to be able to cannabalise Europe to keep them going and try and kick start their manufacturing base again.

As you say Ukraine is not in NATO, before Russia attacked they were simply too corrupt to have anything to do with and after they are now a shining beacon of freedom and democracy, they are certainly not worth sleepwalking into WW3 for, I always wondered how people could possibly be steered into WW2 and now I am seeing in real time how easy it is.

 

Excellent post hardman, agree with it all. The tanks supplied by the west will be easy pickings for drones and air strikes just like the Russian tanks were.

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1 hour ago, Blacko said:

@philinvicta it’s been a while since we commented on this thread. Do u feel that we are starting to poke the bear by Germany’s recent forced intervention and the West by supplying tanks to the Ukrainians?, in now reading the Zelenski is looking for jet fighters also. I reckon we’re getting into territory where one wrong move could lead to major escalation,

He just had a birthday all he wants is more presents!

He is like Oliver in that he will always want more, There is no way he can stay armed without support   Remember as well that this has been going on for around a year and that means a lot of the original equipment is worn out.  All weapons can only fire so many rounds before they need refurbishing especially the barrels on tanks and artillery.

This is probably why he wants lots of new tanks  and toys.  I know that they have repair shops set up around the border with Poland  but equipment must need replacing.  Zelensky will also know that if he can get new equipment to his men for an offensive they will have a major advantage over the Russians they are facing  as I am sure that much of the latest supplies that the Russians are getting will not be up to scratch for front line fighting.

To try and avoid allegations of Germany directly supplying the Ukrainians I understand that the manufacturer has a stock of Leopard tanks which they will supply to UKraine and other nations will pay for I think the Netherlands has offered to buy 18 for instance. 

Also the Ukrainian military will need to be trained up so it will not happen overnight.  Could be May/June before large numbers of the new tanks are  seen in battle.

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1 hour ago, david1111 said:

I feel exactly the same.

I worry that if putin is backed into a corner he will go for broke and we all know what that means.

It's horrendous for Ukraine,  but fact is they are not in nato so zelenski shouldn't be demanding anything

The UK and US though signed that treaty when the Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons so I am sure they feel some obligation even if Russia also signed the treaty ! 

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7 minutes ago, Blacko said:

Excellent post hardman, agree with it all. The tanks supplied by the west will be easy pickings for drones and air strikes just like the Russian tanks were.

This is it, Russia controls the air and so far they have not really been making full use of this advantage.  Surovikin was recently replaced as commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine by Valery Gerasimov and the Western media framed a narrative that this was because he was incompetent but Surovikins speciality is air warfare and he is only being moved into a position where his skills can be better utilised because the Russians realise the time to move into heavier air combat is approaching.

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2 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

The UK and US though signed that treaty when the Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons so I am sure they feel some obligation even if Russia also signed the treaty ! 

Perhaps and of course obligation is felt on humanitarian grounds, but you have to draw the line somewhere.

If we cross that line who knows what position we could end up in

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