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USPGA Championship 2021- who you got.


bigbucks1983

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So for those golf punters we have the second major of the year starting Thursday at Kiawah Island. I dont know if anyone's done a thread on it yet so who do you all fancy?

So as I'm avoiding the bookies for a while and can't go online im having to get my brother to put my bets so they are a lot smaller than they normally would be and has resulted in me picking slightly longer odds than I normally would!

As usual I'm having a few picks on the first round leader, you get similar odds as winning the whole thing but you only need one good round. I think this gives the higher odds players a better chance of making the frame. So my picks are (all each way, 5th of the odds for top 9 i think)

Cink 125/1

Lewis 150/1

Triangle 100/1

Mcintyre 100/1

Willet 125/1

Smith 50/1

Wallace 100/1

As for winning it overall I've gone for the below and depending on how the 1st round goes I might chuck a couple more in. All ew again.

Cink 150/1

Zaltoris 50/1

Mcintyre 100/1

Burns 40/1

For some reason I really fancy Cink to do well aswell as Mcintyre although when I put a bet on i usually so pony but when I dont I do a lot better. I think Smith has a great chance of placing 1st round leader, he is has the best 1st round average on tour and is in form and Triangle has the potential to go low, while not the best in any aspect of the game he is decent in all of them.

The course is going to suit long hitters so the likes of Rory etc will always be in good stead if they keep the ball in play, I think it probably will be won by one of the better known names but as I said, smaller bets meant longer odds. 

Who you all got?

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I always say triangle to, at least in my head! 

Had my picks on for a couple of days. Sam burns is going round well, and had a bet on him pre tournament (66/1) when he one a few weeks back. Played well the other day but not sure he can keep winning, and it's a tough field. Fine e/w pick though. 

Course is Kiawah island, US, so while I'd normally go links ish favoured golfers, the weather doesn't look bad at all, so not too concerned by people who can scramble etc. 

Rorys favourite (and he's won here 9 years ago) and he's been doing some psychology work, but I still can't back him. He's just so inconsistent, needs a good 6 months of tournaments still for me. 

My picks:

Schauffle (18/1)

Been going around under the radar a little lately, but is 3rd lowest scoring average on the tour this year and 4th on the FedEx standings. Looks back to some good form of a year or 2 ago. 

 

Niemann (66/1)

Also ticking around nicely on the stats. 4th on the tour for scoring average and 9th for driving distance (course is a few hundred yards longer than when Rory won it 9 years ago) looks nice odds for each way place 

 

My 3rd pick is going to be between Scheffler (for no other reason than I think he's a tidy player, so probably not him), Cantlay or Ancer. All around the 30-40/1 Mark. Each way up to 11 gets decent money back 👍

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1 hour ago, Luke_B_123 said:

I always say triangle to, at least in my head! 

Had my picks on for a couple of days. Sam burns is going round well, and had a bet on him pre tournament (66/1) when he one a few weeks back. Played well the other day but not sure he can keep winning, and it's a tough field. Fine e/w pick though. 

Course is Kiawah island, US, so while I'd normally go links ish favoured golfers, the weather doesn't look bad at all, so not too concerned by people who can scramble etc. 

Rorys favourite (and he's won here 9 years ago) and he's been doing some psychology work, but I still can't back him. He's just so inconsistent, needs a good 6 months of tournaments still for me. 

My picks:

Schauffle (18/1)

Been going around under the radar a little lately, but is 3rd lowest scoring average on the tour this year and 4th on the FedEx standings. Looks back to some good form of a year or 2 ago. 

 

Niemann (66/1)

Also ticking around nicely on the stats. 4th on the tour for scoring average and 9th for driving distance (course is a few hundred yards longer than when Rory won it 9 years ago) looks nice odds for each way place 

 

My 3rd pick is going to be between Scheffler (for no other reason than I think he's a tidy player, so probably not him), Cantlay or Ancer. All around the 30-40/1 Mark. Each way up to 11 gets decent money back 👍

Yeah I looked at it being links and thought of some of the uk players but from everything I've read and seen the ball will be stopping pretty fast and not running like it would on a traditional links and the weather forecast doesn't show much wind (around 10mph) all weekend so I dont think it will favour them as much. Think the winner will end up as one of the long hitters that carry it a mile, 7800 yards is a long track and one of them will hit it straight enough to over power the course.

I've looked at cantlay for the last few but he doesn't seem quite there yet in the majors despite being as good as he is. Think Berger could make the top ten too as he's come in to a bit of form.

Looking at some of the historical stats, going back 20 years, the winner has never finished higher than 25th the tournament before so there definitely is something to do with form there.

 

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Yep, it's fairly long. Partly what turned me to Niemann, he's (fairly) consistently on the top 10 for driving distances this year in most of the PGA comps, seems to be averaging about 9-10 yards less than bryson who pretty much tops them all, so that could be advantageous, although there's hardly any short par 3s to bring the avg. Length of the course down, so meh. 

Agree on the Cantlay point - Bit like matsuyama in that respect who I backed for a few years and never made me anything significant money wise. 

Berger looks good, quite a lot of hype, but seems justified at the moment to be honest. 

Haven't read that stat about the winners - seems a bit of a strange one and can't say why that would be?!

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1 hour ago, Luke_B_123 said:

Yep, it's fairly long. Partly what turned me to Niemann, he's (fairly) consistently on the top 10 for driving distances this year in most of the PGA comps, seems to be averaging about 9-10 yards less than bryson who pretty much tops them all, so that could be advantageous, although there's hardly any short par 3s to bring the avg. Length of the course down, so meh. 

Agree on the Cantlay point - Bit like matsuyama in that respect who I backed for a few years and never made me anything significant money wise. 

Berger looks good, quite a lot of hype, but seems justified at the moment to be honest. 

Haven't read that stat about the winners - seems a bit of a strange one and can't say why that would be?!

Niemann is a good shout, I expect Spieth to be there or there abouts come Sunday as he's really got some form back but I he does have some mental frailties that I think might catch up with him and he'll fade 

Mr consistent is Victor Hovland, seems to be there or there abouts at most events over any track however I dont see him winning and the odds for both him and spieth aren't inviting enough considering the field.

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Morikawa - 30/1

Hideki San (Matsuyama) - 40/1

Keegan Bradley - 80/1

Those are my 3 for this week..... in other words avoid them like the plague as not since Paddy Reed won the masters have I had as much as a place in the majors.

I do think Rory could go well and you know he is likely to have a good weekend/Sunday so chances of a place are pretty strong. However I didn't come here to bet a 1/5th the odds at 9/1 so on the 3 above my sheckles shall be thrown.

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Rory to win since he done the business two weeks ago and won me some beer tokens.

Tony finau each way 45/1

Trixie on these guys with Day just hopefully showing up to the event as he’s been dire in 2021

Jason day top Aussie 6/1

Tommy fleetwood Top English 6/1

Adam Hadwin Top Canadian 3/1

 

Edited by tmh91
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On 18/05/2021 at 09:44, Luke_B_123 said:

 

Rorys favourite (and he's won here 9 years ago) and he's been doing some psychology work, but I still can't back him. He's just so inconsistent, needs a good 6 months of tournaments still for me. 

And there we go. Rory off the tee, first hole. Wayyyyyy right, could be a drop shot (or maybe worse) on the 10th to start 

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An eventful first round for me.

So as I said in opening, I arranged for my brother to put my bets ok his online account so I didnt have to go in the bookies and importantly got better places. Well I sent the little shit the money and he went and spent it on pokerstars, i only found out today when I saw him today and he gave me betting slips for my picks. This meant I only got 1st 5 instead if 1st 9 for places for my each way bets.

First round leaders- I had 4 players lead or tie for the lead at some point today. Cink and Lewis all could have placed but faltered slightly and with odds of 125/1 and 150/1 that would have been nice. My brothers little stunt cost me a place for Tringale at 100/1 🤬 but he'll be making that up! Result though, I stuck connors in last minute at 60/1 and he leads after 1st round.

Outlay £80, return £385

Going into the second round I have Cink and Zaltoris both tied 16th on 1 under at 150/1 and 50/1 and then connors leading by 2 on 5 under at 60/1. I couldn't shake off the regret of not having a punt on Hovland so went out today and backed him but got a bit carried away and stuck 50 ew on him at 20/1 🙈 however he's placed well at 3 under.

Outlay £160 

So still a hugely long way till we get to Sunday night but at least I'm free rolling now. Hopefully I'll pick up a few more pennies but if I don't, hey ho.

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Anyone manage to pick Mickleson, looked like he had it in the bag until the last few holes yesterday. 

My bets are Schauffle (didn't make cut) went for Cantlay out of the other 3 whos maybe too many behind to make a place, but my main pick alongside Schauffle, Niemann (66/1) is going round solidly each round, Evens or - 1 and leaves himself in strong contention for a place currently tied 7th at 2 under. 

Edited by Luke_B_123
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1 hour ago, Luke_B_123 said:

Anyone manage to pick Mickleson, looked like he had it in the bag until the last few holes yesterday. 

My bets are Schauffle (didn't make cut) went for Cantlay out of the other 3 whos maybe too many behind to make a place, but my main pick alongside Schauffle, Niemann (66/1) is going round solidly each round, Evens or - 1 and leaves himself in strong contention for a place currently tied 7th at 2 under. 

I think that Mickleson will find it hard today with all the pressure because I thought he looked tired at the end of yesterdays round. I would expect Koepka could start to really feel the knee as well. I think anybody who is prepared to have a go amongst those behind and it comes off could make up a lot of places today because I would imagine the leaders will be a little cautious.

A lot of players who have looked in control over last few days have suddenly dropped shots out of nowhere.  With the 2 difficult holes to finish I think this will  go right to the end today.

I have 2 of my 3 picks in the top 10 so I am hoping they can hold on for a place or maybe make a move.  I have Grace at 160/1 ( 8 places)  and Deschambau  at 16/1. All small bets for an interest but it will still be nice to collect something.

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4 hours ago, philinvicta said:

I think that Mickleson will find it hard today with all the pressure because I thought he looked tired at the end of yesterdays round. I would expect Koepka could start to really feel the knee as well. I think anybody who is prepared to have a go amongst those behind and it comes off could make up a lot of places today because I would imagine the leaders will be a little cautious.

A lot of players who have looked in control over last few days have suddenly dropped shots out of nowhere.  With the 2 difficult holes to finish I think this will  go right to the end today.

I have 2 of my 3 picks in the top 10 so I am hoping they can hold on for a place or maybe make a move.  I have Grace at 160/1 ( 8 places)  and Deschambau  at 16/1. All small bets for an interest but it will still be nice to collect something.

I feel a bit that same as you with both Koepka and Mickleson. I think the winner might come from someone below - but only if they can post a good score and put the pressure on. Quite fancy Brandon Grace to give it a go. 

Thing is the top 2 have that few shot cushion that may see one of them safe enough. Should be a good tournament finish though, with plenty to play for and plenty of chances to drop shots for everyone! 

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