Betting Strategies

[Miller26]

There’s also one sport where I am in profit and have been for at least 4 years now . That sport is football . Betting on 6 fold accumulators , missing out the premier league in almost every time ( no value ) and only having 1-2 bets per week.

[Solario333]

1 minute ago, Miller26 said:

There’s also one sport where I am in profit and have been for at least 4 years now . That sport is football . Betting on 6 fold accumulators , missing out the premier league in almost every time ( no value ) and only having 1-2 bets per week.

Great stuff .... I never bet football . I don't like the way money has corrupted the game , so have walked away from it. Glad to hear you have a good outcome though....

[Crunchie]

23 minutes ago, Solario333 said:

Forecasts return the best money.... for me , because I seem to be good at them .... singles also can be good. Place pots are not a money maker, L15 are a loss, L31 a loss.... so singles and forecasts mainly.... I often hit at least one good forecast a day at a main meeting... 

Good good. Then why do L15, 31's? and do a few more f/c and r/f?? Or are they done..... just in case you hit it big?

Thanks for the answer Solario

[Jok3st3r]

I am finding this all very fascinating.....

[Crunchie]

26 minutes ago, Solario333 said:

Otherwise I would be broke !!! you cannot catch every fish in the sea !!

Miller has a big net, and indeed tries to catch every fish in the sea, just its a net with lots of big holes in it..... lol

[Markymark]

1 minute ago, Jok3st3r said:

I am finding this all very fascinating.....

Me to, great thread this. Though, I do think you need to work at Bletchley Park to work some of these perms out.

[Solario333]

My Placepot strategy is very simple. I place a £3 line each day of a big meeting, if it wins I increase the lines for the next day ....etc...  Because its a high stake for one line , you don't win very often,but when you do it pays for the outlay of the whole meeting !! I won one in 2015 which was 258 for a pound ,and I had it three times , so it covered the whole meeting outlay.... Since then I've only had one other and it was 88.00 !!

[Crunchie]

1 minute ago, Markymark said:

Me to, great thread this. Though, I do think you need to work at Bletchley Park to work some of these perms out.

None of this perm stuff with the NFL bets thankfully.  Is that draft thing soon btw?

[Solario333]

15 minutes ago, Crunchienut said:

Good good. Then why do L15, 31's? and do a few more f/c and r/f?? Or are they done..... just in case you hit it big?

Thanks for the answer Solario

Exactly...every gambler has purple patch form time to time when all bets seem to win.... I hope by picking  prices above 5/1 on all my L15/L31 that i will have one come in and scoop the big payout. because I apply £1 stake the 5/1..8/1/10/1/12/1 can pay big !! So if I do hit one I will post it....

[Kev40]

The thing i can say about betting strategy is I'm up on poker in the last 9 months. It's only a few hundred quid but i suppose any profit is good. My gambling has dramatically calmed down in the last 6 months. I'd like to think thats partly to do with this forum and biam. I've not had more than probably 20 or 30 bets this year with the biggest bet been £20 on tiger roll. Don't get me wrong i love to win but at the minute it's not the end of the world if i lose. I've gambled for over 35 years ( I'm 42 btw) and i feel it's taken that long to find a way to enjoy it without the stress. I still know I'm dangerously close to tilting at any point but fortunately it's been a while since i have.

[Miller26]

I use the machine gun approach ., in fire everything you’ve got at it and hope nothing is still standing

some pound one area with the heavy artillery 

some sniper 

[Miller26]

2 minutes ago, Kev40 said:

The thing i can say about betting strategy is I'm up on poker in the last 9 months. It's only a few hundred quid but i suppose any profit is good. My gambling has dramatically calmed down in the last 6 months. I'd like to think thats partly to do with this forum and biam. I've not had more than probably 20 or 30 bets this year with the biggest bet been £20 on tiger roll. Don't get me wrong i love to win but at the minute it's not the end of the world if i lose. I've gambled for over 35 years ( I'm 42 btw) and i feel it's taken that long to find a way to enjoy it without the stress. I still know I'm dangerously close to tilting at any point but fortunately it's been a while since i have.

20 -30 bets Kev , I’m trying to get down to that per day

[Kev40]

15 minutes ago, Miller26 said:

20 -30 bets Kev , I’m trying to get down to that per day

Lol. Then i shall share my thoughts on today's betting. Tonight Michael Smith is 6/5 to beat gerwyn price in the darts. As it's now best of 14 the draw is less likely. Smith played much better last week and his high scoring was back to normal. He does need to improve his doubling but after a good start to the league for price his game has declined rapidly. I think this is a steal and could easily be 8 4 or 8 5 to Smith. I really thought after last week he would be odds on for this game.

[philinvicta]

1 hour ago, Solario333 said:

Otherwise I would be broke !!! you cannot catch every fish in the sea !!

It is not the fish you need to worry about it is the sharks

[philinvicta]

37 minutes ago, Miller26 said:

20 -30 bets Kev , I’m trying to get down to that per day

Are you on that per hour at the moment 

[Markymark]

1 hour ago, Crunchienut said:

None of this perm stuff with the NFL bets thankfully.  Is that draft thing soon btw?

Next few days mate. A lot of trading going on atm, the worse team in the league gets first pick, second worse 2nd pick etc, but they can trade picks for cash/players to other teams. Will post on our thread when its all done.

Edited April 18, 2019 by Markymark

[Miller26]

7 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

Are you on that per hour at the moment 

Well yes when racing is on definitely. If you actually count just the lucky 15s . If I have 10 of them that’s 150 bets alone per day , then singles , football accumulators , random sports etc . Probably touching 700 bets per week

[philinvicta]

17 minutes ago, Markymark said:

Next few days mate. A lot of trading going on atm, the worse team in the league gets first pick, second worse 2nd pick etc, but they can trade picks for cash/players to other teams. Will post on our thread when its all done.

The draft is shown live.  I have watched it in the past.  It is very interesting seeing how they work out who will pick who and he horse trading of picks that goes on so that a team gets a player in a position they want

[Jok3st3r]

1 hour ago, Markymark said:

Me to, great thread this. Though, I do think you need to work at Bletchley Park to work some of these perms out.

Make me want to get my abacus out and work out a winning formula... (No such thing, I know)

No more from me now, I do realise this is a serious thread and a very interesting one at that!

[Lighty45]

I mainly stick to football bets and the odd horse one when there is a big meeting. I have found my football returns improved drastically when reducing the acca's from 6 down to 5. I am not much of a big staker generally £5 and returns vary from 80-150. I also follow some of the Sky Bet price boost 3/4 folds and have had some cracking results on these.

Also bet on live games, i find them more interesting to watch if i have a few £ on them and again some of the Sky Bet price boosts are very good. Last night it was 2 shots on target for Sterling and Son boosted from 8/1 upto 16/1 so had 5 on that and as you will know won in 20 minutes. Then when City went up in the tie had another 5 on Spurs to win the at 9/2 so a lovely result on that game. 

[Markymark]

33 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

The draft is shown live.  I have watched it in the past.  It is very interesting seeing how they work out who will pick who and he horse trading of picks that goes on so that a team gets a player in a position they want

It can be quite confusing, and it helps if you have knowledge of College football, I don't. Centipede and Spursman know about all things NFL related. I tend to just read about it after its all finished. You need to join us over on the NFL thread for next season.

 

[philinvicta]

5 minutes ago, Jok3st3r said:

Make me want to get my abacus out and work out a winning formula... (No such thing, I know)

No more from me now, I do realise this is a serious thread and a very interesting one at that!

At the end of the day you can only win long term if you are constantly backing at  odds that represent a better chance than the actual odds of an event happening.   That is why being a professional punter or a winning punter is so hard and why people often need to specialise  in an area where they have an edge.   Bookmakers also have an in built edge  e.g  they would offer you only 5/6 on a coin toss of heads or tails  which is an evens chance.  Most general punters do not have either the time or patience or even the skills required to do this.   I saw Dave Nevison on Kilroy once and he said he generally spent around 80 hours a week and he made around 70-100k  a year profit.   He was also a former city trader.  This is why people need to have good information with which to give themselves and edge whether that is through good analytics or inside information that others do not possess.   If you want this from horse racing stable the staff know it is valuable.    I knew someone that got good info from a stable that was supposedly watertight   in exchange he had to put 1000 on the horse in exchange for the information. he used to put 5000 on himself.   His bookie noticed he was getting winners from the source and they phoned the trainer and told him that someone was giving out information.   Trainer held a meeting and said he knew someone was doing it and if he found out who the info was coming from they were finished so the info stopped.   This was with the bets being placed in a different country to where the horse was trained.

When you hear of bookmakers network it is often that they allow people who they know are getting good info on fancied horses freedom to have a bet (might be restricted nowadays)  so that they get the early warning that a horse is fancied and can cut it for everyone else for the small expense of laying  a few bets thus saving themselves money overall.    Victor Chandler was known to offer trainers  a certain amount of free bets a year say 500 win so that they would phone when they had one "off"   so that he was able to get an early warning.

Another way that bookmakers used to control the market in the old days was to send money back to the course where they could shorten their off course liabilities  placing a couple of grand worth of bets on course meant price shortened and reduce the liabilities on the many times that they had off course.   There was no betfair back then  or guaranteed odds  so most people would bet at SP.   This was how Gary Wiltshire lost his pitch at Oxford dogs.   Bookies knew that people often backed the racing post (  or greyhound life or greyhound form) nap so on this day Ladbrokes went to Wiltshire who was number 1 pitch and had 500   at 6/4   to try and shorten the odds but he knew what was going on and pulled it to 7/4  .   This did not go down well and they got him removed.

The best one I knew was of a bookmaker at the dogs for a bags meeting  who would pick one he knew was very unlikely to win.   On his way to the track he would call in to betting shops asking for a price saying he would want a good  a large bet,  they would say only at SP  so he would say I will leave it .   He would do this in several shops so that they were all phoning the bet in  .   Head Office would usually have their alarms going off by then,  he would get to the course and someone from that firm would be rushing up to back the dog  to shorten the price frightened of all these bets they were expecting in their shops.   He would bag the money from the losing dog and guarantee himself a profit for the day.  More than one way to skin a cat .

 

This is a long post but hopefully a few people may have gained something from it.

[Miller26]

33 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

At the end of the day you can only win long term if you are constantly backing at  odds that represent a better chance than the actual odds of an event happening.   That is why being a professional punter or a winning punter is so hard and why people often need to specialise  in an area where they have an edge.   Bookmakers also have an in built edge  e.g  they would offer you only 5/6 on a coin toss of heads or tails  which is an evens chance.  Most general punters do not have either the time or patience or even the skills required to do this.   I saw Dave Nevison on Kilroy once and he said he generally spent around 80 hours a week and he made around 70-100k  a year profit.   He was also a former city trader.  This is why people need to have good information with which to give themselves and edge whether that is through good analytics or inside information that others do not possess.   If you want this from horse racing stable the staff know it is valuable.    I knew someone that got good info from a stable that was supposedly watertight   in exchange he had to put 1000 on the horse in exchange for the information. he used to put 5000 on himself.   His bookie noticed he was getting winners from the source and they phoned the trainer and told him that someone was giving out information.   Trainer held a meeting and said he knew someone was doing it and if he found out who the info was coming from they were finished so the info stopped.   This was with the bets being placed in a different country to where the horse was trained.

When you hear of bookmakers network it is often that they allow people who they know are getting good info on fancied horses freedom to have a bet (might be restricted nowadays)  so that they get the early warning that a horse is fancied and can cut it for everyone else for the small expense of laying  a few bets thus saving themselves money overall.    Victor Chandler was known to offer trainers  a certain amount of free bets a year say 500 win so that they would phone when they had one "off"   so that he was able to get an early warning.

Another way that bookmakers used to control the market in the old days was to send money back to the course where they could shorten their off course liabilities  placing a couple of grand worth of bets on course meant price shortened and reduce the liabilities on the many times that they had off course.   There was no betfair back then  or guaranteed odds  so most people would bet at SP.   This was how Gary Wiltshire lost his pitch at Oxford dogs.   Bookies knew that people often backed the racing post (  or greyhound life or greyhound form) nap so on this day Ladbrokes went to Wiltshire who was number 1 pitch and had 500   at 6/4   to try and shorten the odds but he knew what was going on and pulled it to 7/4  .   This did not go down well and they got him removed.

The best one I knew was of a bookmaker at the dogs for a bags meeting  who would pick one he knew was very unlikely to win.   On his way to the track he would call in to betting shops asking for a price saying he would want a good  a large bet,  they would say only at SP  so he would say I will leave it .   He would do this in several shops so that they were all phoning the bet in  .   Head Office would usually have their alarms going off by then,  he would get to the course and someone from that firm would be rushing up to back the dog  to shorten the price frightened of all these bets they were expecting in their shops.   He would bag the money from the losing dog and guarantee himself a profit for the day.  More than one way to skin a cat .

 

This is a long post but hopefully a few people may have gained something from it.

Love the stories Phil 

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Crunchienut said:

that is correct, and unless you put the formula into a spreadsheet, that is the way to work out the number of bets. No quick way otherwise

Its only easy if you were doing 1 per race for 5 races.(there are set formulae for working the number of doubes, trebles etc for those bets) But doing permed trebles/ fourfolds and fivefolds, thats a massive number of bets. sure you were only doing 3 races when I followed a couple last year?? Fuck 5 races, you may win but the cost would be huge. I might have a go at 3 races ew when the season moves on a bit and I get a better handle on the handicaps....... But 5!!!??

You think about it your placing 216 Fourfold bets and you can win just 5 times. As only 1 can win each race it seems a massive imbalance, in my eyes (but thats just me). But (and I know you won't) if you done the bets e/w and halved the stake. Technically all those bets are in play, all 216 of them if you managed to tricast or forecast every race. Does that make sense? I know some would be ew trebles etc but at least there won't be so many dead bets. Thats why I might have a go at a 3 race ew perm. Often I get 2 or 3 placed in a handicap, so when Im confident I might have a go.

Hope it helped

 

Thought so. I have done 3 and 4 races prior, never more and as comical as it sounds I absolutely did not know how to work out the 4 races total amount of bets. I thought it was way more bets than it actually is. I will stick it into a google sheet for future reference although, I will not do more than 4 races unless I perhaps get a "banker" as its just too expensive to place the bet with any decent sort of stake, also probably getting into the territory with 5folds where limits would be hit too easily, plus the likelihood of landing one absolutely slim to none.

[Lighty45]

20 hours ago, Lighty45 said:

I mainly stick to football bets and the odd horse one when there is a big meeting. I have found my football returns improved drastically when reducing the acca's from 6 down to 5. I am not much of a big staker generally £5 and returns vary from 80-150. I also follow some of the Sky Bet price boost 3/4 folds and have had some cracking results on these.

Also bet on live games, i find them more interesting to watch if i have a few £ on them and again some of the Sky Bet price boosts are very good. Last night it was 2 shots on target for Sterling and Son boosted from 8/1 upto 16/1 so had 5 on that and as you will know won in 20 minutes. Then when City went up in the tie had another 5 on Spurs to win the at 9/2 so a lovely result on that game. 

Last nights boosted acca won again at 11/1. So had a 16/1 on Weds and 11/1 last night. Todays is 9/2 for Leeds, West brom and Barnsley