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CHELTENHAM 2019, Lets arm ourselves


spursman

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I really like benie de dieux in the mares, was 11/4 Sunday now 7/4 in places, so bit short

 buva d'iare in it in the champion, apples ran great but he is tried and tested

Champ in the ballymore hurdle, they named him that because they think he was special, last run did not suit

Le Richeborg in the arkle, not sure about this yet but looked good

 

Those are initial thoughts, I also like like 1 or 3 of th Irish in the supreme, I have not done anything yet and will start watching videos of their races and opponents soon. 

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26 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

For anyone looking at the Foxhunters the current fav for it  Stand up and fight was beaten in a point to point recently. Marky147  also thinks Gilgamboa is unlikely to run.   I have backed Ucello Conti for this trained by Gordon Elliot.

Yeah, he got beat by Fenno's Storm in that PTP

https://www.p2p.ie/results.php?ajaction=select&lstaction=getrace&race_id=24058

I'll probably lay my stake back on him and take a 30/1 freeroll.

Edited by Marky147
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 06/02/2019 at 18:30, philinvicta said:

For anyone looking at the Foxhunters the current fav for it  Stand up and fight was beaten in a point to point recently. Marky147  also thinks Gilgamboa is unlikely to run.   I have backed Ucello Conti for this trained by Gordon Elliot.

Ucello Conti out today at Navan

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Ante post pics so far what’s everyone else done 

 

Ante posts 

 

TUESDAY horses

 

Supreme Novices

Vision d’Honneur £40 ew @ 12/1 

Thomas Derby £50 @ 20/1 

 

Arkle

Paloma Blue £40 ew @ 16/1 

Cilaos Emery £40 @ 20/1

 

Champion Hurdle

Brain Power £40 ew @ 16/1 

 

National Hunt Chase

Ballyward £30 @ 25s

Impulsive Star £40 @ 14s

Shady Operator £30 @ 20s

Blow by Blow £30 @ 20s

 

Mares Hurdle

Good Tyne Tara £35 ew at 25/1

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Ballymore

Beakstown £40 ew @ 20/1

 

RSA Chase

Topofthegame £40 ew @ 8/1

 

Cross Country

Bless the Wings £40 ew @ 20/1

 

Champion Bumper

Master Debonnaire £30 ew @ 16/1

 

THURSDAY

 

JLT Novices 

Kildisart £30 ew at 16/1

Pravalaguna £22 ew at 40/1

 

Stayers Hurdle

Black Op £50 @ 14/1

 

FRIDAY

 

Gold Cup

Anibale Fly £40 @ 33s

Shattered Love £40 @ 33s

 

 

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4 hours ago, Just Nathan said:

Ante post pics so far what’s everyone else done 

Ante posts TUESDAY horses Supreme Novices Vision d’Honneur £40 ew @ 12/1 Thomas Derby £50 @ 20/1 Arkle Paloma Blue £40 ew @ 16/1 Cilaos Emery £40 @ 20/1 Champion Hurdle Brain Power £40 ew @ 16/1 National Hunt Chase Ballyward £30 @ 25s Impulsive Star £40 @ 14s Shady Operator £30 @ 20s Blow by Blow £30 @ 20s Mares Hurdle Good Tyne Tara £35 ew at 25/1 WEDNESDAY Ballymore Beakstown £40 ew @ 20/1 RSA Chase Topofthegame £40 ew @ 8/1 Cross Country Bless the Wings £40 ew @ 20/1 Champion Bumper Master Debonnaire £30 ew @ 16/1 THURSDAY JLT Novices Kildisart £30 ew at 16/1 Pravalaguna £22 ew at 40/1 Stayers Hurdle Black Op £50 @ 14/1 FRIDAY Gold Cup Anibale Fly £40 @ 33s Shattered Love £40 @ 33s

Stellar variation of horses there! I have a number of those, all in e/w bets and some with higher odds, looking to have a few come ?

Hope you hit some of them!

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Some very nice prices there @Just Nathan !  

I have also backed some shorter prices. 

Principally  Sir Erec  2.56 on Betfair .   Triumph Hurdle.

Le richeburg in the Ankle @4.7 

Laurina  @6.8 in the Champion Hurdle.....

Treble also......

these will be my biggest bets of the year..... But am adding money every week to the bet so we'll see what happens on the day !! 

I will be looking at some way trebles and fourfold too with the higher priced place horses,some of which you have listed. 

 

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59 minutes ago, Solario333 said:

I think its the best bet of the meeting .... I have 60@6.8 at the moment in the champion hurdle but suspect that it will shorten dramatically so will maybe lump on it once I know its actually running ....

This has been bigged up for the Champion Hurdle a lot, but I wonder if now they know that Apples Jade will not be in the mares that they might go for that

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I have a few lucky 15s and 31s and yankees done already.   I have good prices about some of the horses I fancied for certain races and am now finding it hard to put them in other bets at half the price they were. With the NRNB at the moment a lot of horses are at prices that they are unlikely to go off shorter on the day.  I will wait to see the entries for the handicaps later this week  and maybe do some next week otherwise I will wait until Cheltenham week.

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53 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

I have a few lucky 15s and 31s and yankees done already.   I have good prices about some of the horses I fancied for certain races and am now finding it hard to put them in other bets at half the price they were. With the NRNB at the moment a lot of horses are at prices that they are unlikely to go off shorter on the day.  I will wait to see the entries for the handicaps later this week  and maybe do some next week otherwise I will wait until Cheltenham week.

Agree the flu-vaccine requirement has thrown a wobbly in the whole Cheltenham process so ta all up in the air now !!

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My Ante Post portfolio is pretty light this year, all I've got is. 

 

Faugheen @ 16s for the stayers 

Miranda 33s for the Mares Novice 

Sir Erec 10s for the triumph

 

Erec the only one to really get excited about price wise but I'm concerned about his jumping. Hoping he'll go odds on on the day so I can lay a little back

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Th thoughts of the mighty Nicky Henderson:

Nicky Henderson is having another excellent campaign and with next month's Cheltenham Festival quickly approaching, he guided Graham Dench through running plans for his powerful squad during the bumper four days . . .

Tuesday

Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Angels Breath is in about seven races this weekend, including the Dovecote. What I would like for him is just an ordinary novice hurdle with plenty of runners so that he can go and learn to race. It will be fast and furious in the Supreme, and all he's done is go round in a six-runner race with only four hurdles. I'm pretty sure he's a two-miler so he'll go here, even though his owner Dai Walters also has Al Dancer, who was very impressive at Ascot on Saturday. Mister Fisher will go here too, and probably a couple of others.

Unibet Champion Hurdle

Buveur D'Air was not at his best on the day last year. He wasn't impressive and I think he only won because of a certain amount of ability and quite a lot of guts. He'd beaten Melon before and Mick Jazz shouldn't have been that close. That wasn't Buveur D'Air at his best. We need him in the form he was in at Newcastle, because he was really good there and Barry [Geraghty] said he felt fantastic.

I'll tell you why he wasn't himself last year. He lives in a box next to We Have A Dream and on the Monday morning We Have A Dream had a screaming temperature. They lived absolutely nose-to-nose. He's as tough as teak, but he didn't get over Cheltenham. It took him apart. Races normally don't affect him at all – you could run him again the next week – but he hadn't recovered in four weeks and so couldn't go anywhere near Aintree.

 

He'll have to be better than last year because I'm sure it's a better race. I won't say he's 10lb better, but I hope he is. I still think he's the one to beat and I'm glad he had that run at Sandown because he does take a lot of work.

Two miles on fast ground around Kempton caught Buveur D'Air out a bit and Verdana Blue had a lovely run round in his slipstream before delivering that turn of foot. She's had to miss her fast-track all-weather qualifier at Kempton, which was her prep for Cheltenham and would also have got her a run in the £200,000 marathon at Lingfield on Good Friday, and that was really bad luck. Ground is essential to her though, and Cheltenham has to water to get it to good to soft on the first day.

Brain Power will run too and he was very good in the International at Cheltenham. That was the way to ride him, and good ground helps.

National Hunt Chase

Ok Corral runs in the four-miler, although he didn't look desperate for it at Warwick. I'm sure he'll get four, and he certainly wants all of three. He's been frustrating and was here for three years before he ever ran as I couldn't keep him sound for five minutes, but at last he's got through it. At nine he's quite an age for novice chasing but he looked very good at Warwick, travelling so well, and in Derek O'Connor has the best man riding him. I don't think Mr Whipped will make it to Cheltenham.

Wednesday

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

Champ runs in the Ballymore. He's been very good and he's got plenty of experience. Champagne Platinum was going two miles, but he could go two and a half here. It's a matter of trying to spread them around.

RSA Novices' Chase

I thought Santini was very good at Kempton and I like to agree with what most people concluded which was that if you had to take one horse out of the Kauto Star you might take him. Cheltenham will suit him better than Kempton, there's no doubt about that, but I really would have loved if he ran last weekend. He does need to go to a racecourse, and maybe even jump some fences. He had a lot of experience over hurdles though.

On The Blind Side would be an RSA candidate too and I was pleased with him at Kempton, but he missed his run at the weekend and I need to get one into him. The only place to go is three and a quarter miles at Chepstow and that's not a good idea close to Cheltenham.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

Altior has done everything right – he hasn't put a foot wrong – although you'll all tell me he jumped to the left at Ascot. We've come in on a different strategy this year, because he was fit and well, and now he's had a nice break so is coming in nice and fresh. Hopefully we can go on with him again after Cheltenham.

He's been very good and looks super. He'll work tomorrow and then have a couple of schools because he enjoys it. He just gets on with it. He's got tremendous pace and, touch wood, his jumping is very good. He's got a lot of gears too, and if he was a Flat horse he'd be a Group horse, although we aren't going to do that!

 

We're back in the Sprinter Sacre situation again, where anything bar a really good performance won't do, and it's not fair because lots of things can happen and there will be plenty of opposition. It will be disappointing if it goes wrong but you're prepared for the fact it will go wrong one day. He can't go on forever. I know Winx can, but she's different. It's got to happen somewhere and I just hope it doesn't happen in the Champion Chase.

Thursday

Ryanair Chase

Top Notch will go straight for the Ryanair. It's a pity he couldn't run at Ascot on Saturday as that's where he was meant to be, but Cyrname was very good. He's probably 5lb short of a Grade 1 horse, but he'll turn up. He's in good form and would have to be on the shortlist of horses we're looking forward to. Terrefort I'm not sure about. Clan Des Obeaux didn't half put Terrefort in his place on Saturday, but he had a right good blow afterwards. He could come into it as the Gold Cup is probably not the race for him. Janika I'm not sure about either [has topweight in 888Sport Handicap Chase at Kempton on Saturday].

Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle

There are two or three fillies I think are very good. Epatante needs another run before the mares', and so does Lust For Glory. I'm hoping to run them this weekend. Elusive Belle ran away with Sam Waley-Cohen at Sandown last Friday and you can ignore that.

Friday

JCB Triumph Hurdle

JP [McManus] will win it, but not with one of mine. I was very disappointed with Laskadine at Haydock on Saturday and have to admit I was disappointed with Adjali last time too, as at Chepstow there was nothing between him and Quel Destin. I haven't run Fusil Raffles yet but he's going to work tomorrow and then could run in the Adonis.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

Birchdale and maybe even Dickie Diver will run in the Albert Bartlett. Birchdale is good. He did well to win the other day as he was very green. I hope he's learned enough and I think he should have done. He could go two and a half or three miles. Dickie Diver runs at Chepstow on Saturday. He needs more experience.

Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup

Nico [de Boinville] rode Might Bite on Saturday and thought he was in terrific form – really great. I was thrilled with what I saw too. He really was very good.

He's lacked rhythm and his jumping hasn't had the fluidity there normally is, so that's what we're hoping comes back. I know he's run poorly, and on this season's form he deserves to be 20-1, but it's definitely not been a mental problem and we've freshened him up and changed a few things.

 

Two years ago he had a hobday operation, and when you do that you do the soft palate with it. The hobday is perfectly alright and can't be done again anyway, but the soft palate very often needs to be redone and I've had horses here who have had it done four or five times. It lasts about three runs and then you do it again. I had no reason to think he needed it doing again, because you don't hear anything or see anything, but we recauterised it and tightened it up after Kempton.

He went round Cheltenham on soft ground last year, using a fantastic strip of ground on the inner with Native River. It hadn't been used for 11 months until you jump the last fence, and then the run-in was the wettest part of the track and was already very well used from the three previous days. He landed in front over the second-last and then two strides after the last it went 'bang', and that was that.

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Lots of good info on from Willie's open day. Sounding like Klassical Dream could end up in the ballymore which would make Aramon his first string. 12s is probably a fair price. 

I've just had my first bet on the supreme with Scarlet Dragon at 33/1. He's got that cheeky second season novice status, form of his last run got a little boost yesterday and his flat run behind Wissahickon is looking fairly tasty now.

He runs in the Dovecote Saturday a race he was second in last year on his first ever run over the sticks, up against Angels Breath and Itchy Feet so even a good run in defeat wouldn't put me off but springs a shock and he's probably into 16s by Saturday evening. 

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Final Cheltenham ante post portfolio 

TUESDAY

Supreme Novices
Al Dancer £30 win @ 11/1
Thomas Derby £50 win @ 20/1
Vision d’Honneur £40 ew @ 12/1
Itchy Feet £30 win @ 28/1
Trebles with Al Dancer/Lalor/Champ Hurdle Perms £100
 
Arkle
Lalor £100 win @ 9/2
Paloma Blue £40 ew @ 16/1

Ultima Handicap
Singlefarmpayment £30 win @ 16/1
Arthur’s Gift £30 win @ 25/1
Valseur Lido £20 win @ 33/1

Champion Hurdle
Brain Power £40 ew @ 16/1
 
National Hunt Chase
Ballyward £30 win @ 25s
Impulsive Star £50 win @ 14s
Dandy Dan £25 win @ 33/1
Shady Operator £30 win @ 20s
Blow by Blow £30 win @ 20s
 
Mares Hurdle
Roksana £80 win at 16/1
Good Tyne Tara £35 ew at 25/1
 
WEDNESDAY
Ballymore
Klassical Dream £50 win @ 12/1
Beakstown £40 ew @ 20/1
 
RSA Chase
Topofthegame £40 ew @ 8/1

Champion Chase 
Lady Buttons £25 ew @ 33/1
God’s Own £25 ew @ 33/1
Fox Norton £20 win @ 42/1
 
Cross Country
Auvergnat £80 win @ 6/1
Bless the Wings £40 ew @ 20/1
 
Champion Bumper
Master Debonnaire £40 ew @ 16/1
Meticulous £30 ew @ 16/1
 
THURSDAY

JLT Novices
Kildisart £30 ew at 16/1
Pravalaguna £22 ew at 40/1
 
Stayers Hurdle
Black Op £50 win @ 14/1

Mares Novice Hurdle
Posh Trish £40 win @ 10/1
 
FRIDAY
Triumph Hurdle
Pic Dorhy £40 ew @ 16/1
Pentland Hills £30 ew @ 16/1

Albert Bartlett Novices 
Lisnagar Oscar £50 win @ 8/1
Allaho £25 win @ 14/1
Rockpoint £25 win @ 33/1

Gold Cup
Might Bite £50 win @ 14s
Anibale Fly £40 win @ 33s
Shattered Love £40 win @ 33s

Fox hunters
Hazel Hill £50 win @ 8/1
Wonderful Charm £40 ew @ 16/1


 

 

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35 minutes ago, Just Nathan said:

Final Cheltenham ante post portfolio 

TUESDAY

Supreme Novices
Al Dancer £30 win @ 11/1
Thomas Derby £50 win @ 20/1
Vision d’Honneur £40 ew @ 12/1
Itchy Feet £30 win @ 28/1
Trebles with Al Dancer/Lalor/Champ Hurdle Perms £100
 
Arkle
Lalor £100 win @ 9/2
Paloma Blue £40 ew @ 16/1

Ultima Handicap
Singlefarmpayment £30 win @ 16/1
Arthur’s Gift £30 win @ 25/1
Valseur Lido £20 win @ 33/1

Champion Hurdle
Brain Power £40 ew @ 16/1
 
National Hunt Chase
Ballyward £30 win @ 25s
Impulsive Star £50 win @ 14s
Dandy Dan £25 win @ 33/1
Shady Operator £30 win @ 20s
Blow by Blow £30 win @ 20s
 
Mares Hurdle
Roksana £80 win at 16/1
Good Tyne Tara £35 ew at 25/1
 
WEDNESDAY
Ballymore
Klassical Dream £50 win @ 12/1
Beakstown £40 ew @ 20/1
 
RSA Chase
Topofthegame £40 ew @ 8/1

Champion Chase 
Lady Buttons £25 ew @ 33/1
God’s Own £25 ew @ 33/1
Fox Norton £20 win @ 42/1
 
Cross Country
Auvergnat £80 win @ 6/1
Bless the Wings £40 ew @ 20/1
 
Champion Bumper
Master Debonnaire £40 ew @ 16/1
Meticulous £30 ew @ 16/1
 
THURSDAY

JLT Novices
Kildisart £30 ew at 16/1
Pravalaguna £22 ew at 40/1
 
Stayers Hurdle
Black Op £50 win @ 14/1

Mares Novice Hurdle
Posh Trish £40 win @ 10/1
 
FRIDAY
Triumph Hurdle
Pic Dorhy £40 ew @ 16/1
Pentland Hills £30 ew @ 16/1

Albert Bartlett Novices 
Lisnagar Oscar £50 win @ 8/1
Allaho £25 win @ 14/1
Rockpoint £25 win @ 33/1

Gold Cup
Might Bite £50 win @ 14s
Anibale Fly £40 win @ 33s
Shattered Love £40 win @ 33s

Fox hunters
Hazel Hill £50 win @ 8/1
Wonderful Charm £40 ew @ 16/1

Good news Nath.. at least some of yours will hit, as I have a lot of them at higher odds and they have nearly all ripped down since I did them.. all e/w by the way!! :keeeemon:

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