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I have been backing a greyhound for the English Greyhound Derby     since last November  more or less every week.   The derby is a 6 round comp so a lot needs to go right and I did my bets in a specific way that would allow me to manage the bet.

I did a couple of small bets when first spotting my hope e/w  at odds of 66/1  and the following morning he was in to 25/1,   I then did a bet in my local shop at 25/1  and planned to have a bet every week when I got paid.  I then realised if the dog kept on performing the price was going to shorten especially if other decided to bet it as well.   I had some savings and so  decided to have a big bet  rather then spread my bets over many weeks.   Most I could get on was 400 e/w  I had asked for 1600 win and 400 place  and they slashed the price .   I had decided for once to have a go having in the past spotted good quality horses and greyhounds but never really benefitting from it as I never did the bets to allow me to get  anything from it.

I  had the place part of the bets  and decided over time  to place more bets but to win only. Some of these bets to win were with BET365  as I knew from past experience they would be likely to offer cash outs on win bets.   I then was doing well so I had regular bets to win with them but also did some win bets in betting shops.

I always knew I could not get the money out of the shop bets unless there was a return to come but I could use the online bets to hedge if things worked out.

As usual the cash outs offered on the online bets   was slashed to around half stake even as the prices dropped as the dog continued to perform well .  It came in to around 16/1 by the start of the Derby which as I say is over 6 rounds  after the first round the dog reduced in price after equaling the track record for the track and it was finally possible to cash out a small profit which I did not entertain.  The dog kept qualifying  and after 3 rounds was in to 7/2  for the outright win.   At this stage I was starting to feel the pressure as I had a potential 58000 euros to come including my stake money. Any way another fancied dog got withdrawn and I decided to cash out some money to get my stake money back including the money I had staked in the shops plus guarantee around a 1k profit.   To do this cost me around half a point against the market  ie my bookie was 7/2 but market was generally around 4/1  and I had to basically lay off at 9/2 when I cashed out.   I also knew that as there were still 3 rounds to go so  I was not going to be offered a 10 per cent deduction which sometimes used to happen.  Also it meant that I did not have the stress of potentially getting nothing back if anything went wrong even though I also knew it was not value to me to be cashing out.  It also meant if the dog got the place money it was no longer covering the stakes placed but was a profit.

Tonight the dog made the final  thus getting me a further 3k profit.   This still left me  with the potential to win a big sum of money if the dog wins and I was thinking at least the premium to cash out would reduce as this was the final leg  and would allow me to maybe take more profit and leave just the shop bets running.   However when I did the calcs  of what I was being offered it made me puke. They were priced up at 13/8    for the dog to win and when I looked at the cash out the offer was 9/4 which to me is far too high. On the two small bets I did each way they did not even seem to take account of the fact that the place money was landed.

I have also noticed lately that this is not an isolated case  and the cash out offers are far worse and very bad value.  They never used to be in out favour but  now seem to be just a rip off.   I had unique circumstances in wanting to cash out the money I already  did  but I am sure as hell not laying them 9/4  now  so will let it all run as I am already in profit on the bets.

Has anyone else noticed the poor value nowadays in cashing out.

 

 

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1 hour ago, philinvicta said:

I have been backing a greyhound for the English Greyhound Derby     since last November  more or less every week.   The derby is a 6 round comp so a lot needs to go right and I did my bets in a specific way that would allow me to manage the bet.

I did a couple of small bets when first spotting my hope e/w  at odds of 66/1  and the following morning he was in to 25/1,   I then did a bet in my local shop at 25/1  and planned to have a bet every week when I got paid.  I then realised if the dog kept on performing the price was going to shorten especially if other decided to bet it as well.   I had some savings and so  decided to have a big bet  rather then spread my bets over many weeks.   Most I could get on was 400 e/w  I had asked for 1600 win and 400 place  and they slashed the price .   I had decided for once to have a go having in the past spotted good quality horses and greyhounds but never really benefitting from it as I never did the bets to allow me to get  anything from it.

I  had the place part of the bets  and decided over time  to place more bets but to win only. Some of these bets to win were with BET365  as I knew from past experience they would be likely to offer cash outs on win bets.   I then was doing well so I had regular bets to win with them but also did some win bets in betting shops.

I always knew I could not get the money out of the shop bets unless there was a return to come but I could use the online bets to hedge if things worked out.

As usual the cash outs offered on the online bets   was slashed to around half stake even as the prices dropped as the dog continued to perform well .  It came in to around 16/1 by the start of the Derby which as I say is over 6 rounds  after the first round the dog reduced in price after equaling the track record for the track and it was finally possible to cash out a small profit which I did not entertain.  The dog kept qualifying  and after 3 rounds was in to 7/2  for the outright win.   At this stage I was starting to feel the pressure as I had a potential 58000 euros to come including my stake money. Any way another fancied dog got withdrawn and I decided to cash out some money to get my stake money back including the money I had staked in the shops plus guarantee around a 1k profit.   To do this cost me around half a point against the market  ie my bookie was 7/2 but market was generally around 4/1  and I had to basically lay off at 9/2 when I cashed out.   I also knew that as there were still 3 rounds to go so  I was not going to be offered a 10 per cent deduction which sometimes used to happen.  Also it meant that I did not have the stress of potentially getting nothing back if anything went wrong even though I also knew it was not value to me to be cashing out.  It also meant if the dog got the place money it was no longer covering the stakes placed but was a profit.

Tonight the dog made the final  thus getting me a further 3k profit.   This still left me  with the potential to win a big sum of money if the dog wins and I was thinking at least the premium to cash out would reduce as this was the final leg  and would allow me to maybe take more profit and leave just the shop bets running.   However when I did the calcs  of what I was being offered it made me puke. They were priced up at 13/8    for the dog to win and when I looked at the cash out the offer was 9/4 which to me is far too high. On the two small bets I did each way they did not even seem to take account of the fact that the place money was landed.

I have also noticed lately that this is not an isolated case  and the cash out offers are far worse and very bad value.  They never used to be in out favour but  now seem to be just a rip off.   I had unique circumstances in wanting to cash out the money I already  did  but I am sure as hell not laying them 9/4  now  so will let it all run as I am already in profit on the bets.

Has anyone else noticed the poor value nowadays in cashing out.

 

 

Yeah I never cash out as they never offer a fair amount these days, and the fact they offer cash outs must mean they make a lot more by people cashing out than what they lose. 
 

am I right in reading that you’ve cashed out all your stake money back and still have a chunk on the dog? Congrats if so that’s a smart move.
 

 

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7 hours ago, Aarongeorge1989 said:

Yeah I never cash out as they never offer a fair amount these days, and the fact they offer cash outs must mean they make a lot more by people cashing out than what they lose. 
 

am I right in reading that you’ve cashed out all your stake money back and still have a chunk on the dog? Congrats if so that’s a smart move.
 

 

yes I have all my stake and a nice profit secured and a what is now a freeroll for a very nice win   on a dog I expect to go off favourite

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18 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

yes I have all my stake and a nice profit secured and a what is now a freeroll for a very nice win   on a dog I expect to go off favourite

That’s what I thought! Absolutely brilliant result phil, a lot nicer to watch the races stress free knowing you have your stake money back and a guaranteed profit whatever happens. 

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I always expected a  bad offer when there are   more rounds to go a little like they used to do in golf but as the event got to the later stages  I expected the cash out margin to shrink.   This does not appear to be the case  and to be honest  really makes the offers not worth considering and you need to almost take other options to lay off or as I did  and make a decision to have some bets that you choose to cash out and cover yourself.   I do not have a Betfair account anymore  but that is one obvious way  to hedge .

I also wonder with the advances in AI  whether they can see that you have used the cash out button in the past and thus make you worse offers 

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1 hour ago, philinvicta said:

I also wonder with the advances in AI  whether they can see that you have used the cash out button in the past and thus make you worse offers 

Absolutely, do you notice on Bet365 that when a bet is won it offers you the cash out option for the full amount and sometimes it stays like that for 5-10 mins, I always make sure to just let it settle as I think the same.

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39 minutes ago, MrUKHackz said:

Absolutely, do you notice on Bet365 that when a bet is won it offers you the cash out option for the full amount and sometimes it stays like that for 5-10 mins, I always make sure to just let it settle as I think the same.

Yes I often think why are they offering the cash out   and have not just settled the bet.  It seems as there are layers of software working until the bet is settled

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6 hours ago, MrUKHackz said:

Bet365

When I was with them I always thot they were shrewd AF,  VERY close behind them was Paddy Power. 

Could be wrong but pretty certain 365 were the first outfit that banned me,  well terminated the account. 

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Just an update on this.  the dog I backed has shortened and even though the cash out is still bad value the amounts have increased I therefore decided to cash out some bets and leave a few to run as I still  have   a very nice sum to come from my shop bets and the reason I originally did so many online bets was to get the cash out offers and use them to cover myself as I said. 

I was just hoping the cash out offers would have been a little better value.  I still think it is a viable strategy if doing a long term ante post  bet especially something like the greyhound derby or a golf tournament that goes on over several rounds.

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Looking at figures I have all my stake money out including money to cover the bets placed in shops.  I have around 3k profit  plus another 3k from the place money and I still get a nice 5 figure win if the dog should win the final equivalent to just over half  of the total amount I could of won if I let it all ride.

As I am older I think ensuring I got something  good out of it even if the dog  does not win is a sensible strategy   also at my age I am too old to be jetting off to Vegas for the coke and hookers!

 

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For anyone interested the Towcester card can be watched on sisracing.tv  website  and the card is also being shown on the Ayozat  Tv channel

Derby final is on at 9.15 pm  card starts at around 6pm

The dog I have backed is in Trap 3   and is called King Memphis

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7 hours ago, philinvicta said:

For anyone interested the Towcester card can be watched on sisracing.tv  website  and the card is also being shown on the Ayozat  Tv channel

Derby final is on at 9.15 pm  card starts at around 6pm

The dog I have backed is in Trap 3   and is called King Memphis

I’ll be rooting for ya hardman, I won’t back it myself as I’m a little superstitious that it brings bad luck. You will be feeling edgy most of the day waiting on the race. Long live the King ( Memphis ).

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I’m surprised at the 11/10 offer on Memphis King. He has two sleepers in trap 1 and 2, clear path and he’s not getting pegged back. I thought he would at least be 4/7 and wouldn’t be surprised if he was just that at post time.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Blacko said:

I’m surprised at the 11/10 offer on Memphis King. He has two sleepers in trap 1 and 2, clear path and he’s not getting pegged back. I thought he would at least be 4/7 and wouldn’t be surprised if he was just that at post time.

I was nervous on Monday before they made the draw   and he was then priced at 13/8  but the draw could not have gone much better IMO    he shortened after it to 5/4  which was the price I  made him when someone asked after the semis. I do not really see him going much shorter as it is the final and there should be a good amount of money in the ring.

There are lot of finals tonight with a few finals and as usual price could be affected by other results on the night

Edited by philinvicta
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46 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

I was nervous on Monday before they made the draw   and he was then priced at 13/8  but the draw could not have gone much better IMO    he shortened after it to 5/4  which was the price I  made him when someone asked after the semis. I do not really see him going much shorter as it is the final and there should be a good amount of money in the ring.

There are lot of finals tonight with a few finals and as usual price could be affected by other results on the night

I was impressed by his runs in the heats, fast away and is solid in front, his second in the last heat was a little unlucky. Trap 3 is a perfect location and i think he will stamp his authority from the off. 

How did you pick out this dog so early?, getting 50s is absolutely unreal given how talented he is. You will need to stick up a few selections in future.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Blacko said:

I was impressed by his runs in the heats, fast away and is solid in front, his second in the last heat was a little unlucky. Trap 3 is a perfect location and i think he will stamp his authority from the off. 

How did you pick out this dog so early?, getting 50s is absolutely unreal given how talented he is. You will need to stick up a few selections in future.

I saw him running in the Puppy Derby at Towcester last year   on the greyhound TV channel  where he broke the clock as it was then . I was even more impressed by the run he did to pick up his brother in the next round .   Got a few small bets on at 66/1 that night as market makers did not suspend betting and next morning he was 25/1.  I decided to have a go for a change and just keep backing him each week.

 

As for last week it is the first time I have  had a dog come 2nd and win me 3k !   and a chance for the big bucks tonight  by qualifying

 

Edited by philinvicta
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9 minutes ago, philinvicta said:

I saw him running in the Puppy Derby at Towcester last year   on the greyhound TV channel  where he broke the clock as it was then . I was even more impressed by the run he did to pick up his brother in the next round .   Got a few small bets on at 66/1 that night as market makers did not suspend betting and next morning he was 25/1.  I decided to have a go for a change and just keep backing him each week.

 

As for last week it is the first time I have  had a dog come 2nd and win me 3k !   and a chance for the big bucks tonight  by qualifying

 

Smart move mate, made you're own mind up rather than listening to experts. Greyhound racing isn't the easiest sport to predict given the finest of margins and collisions that occur in between.

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Currently watching the woman's amateur golf at Portmarnock  it is a magnificent match.  Scottish player  was 4 up after 8 the American  managed to pull it back and go in after 18 holes  1 up    It is a 36 holes match   and   currently  the Scottish girl is back to being 1 up  with 3 holes to play

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I have to say I think the betting game is almost over compared to what we used to be able to attempt and this for me is one last Hurrah.  Even now one of the Ladbokes  shops that I did  a couple of my bets in has closed so I will have to contact customer service and arrange to collect elsewhere if I am successful.   Local shops are getting quieter and quieter  and the craic has gone from the game for me. I will have to go through KYC as well even just to collect the place money for the bet.

Even if I win I have  small deposit limits online  and have closed a couple of accounts  so they will see very little of the money back  and I will stick to my normal "betting allowance"   although I do have a couple of things planned if I scoop the lot.

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