Cheltenham Day 4
JCB Triumph Hurdle Final day of the festival and we start with a nice looking race here. ZANAHIYR has impressed alot of people this year and safe to say he has yet to be fully tested easing down on his last two runs. If he carries on the way he has he is the horse to beat without question. QUILIXIOUS has got more appeal in the market however, he looks laid out for this and could well be a huge danger having made all and sat prominent so either way he shouldn't have a problem settling. Question on everyone's lips is what has he beat? That is true and that's where you have to factor in his price but he has been impressive and go the job done nicely everytime he's been seen on track. FRENCH ASEEL looks as tho he's Mullins main shout in the race but again he's come over from French flat racing and had one run over the hurdles which he was impressive but the same question applies what did he beat and was he just visually impressive against lower grade horses? ADAGIO and DUFFLE COAT have met before with the latter winning giving his rival 6lb that day. He stays well but he may end up too far back in the field to beat this lot. The former mentioned has improved and is a nice horse himself but has alot to do to turn the form around never mind beaten the top two in the market. TRITONIC was a very good flat horse reaching a mark of 99 before switching to hurdling and his turn of foot was very good in his only hurdle race to date making up around 3 lengths with one to jump. I wouldn't be ruling him out but he does need to be more fluent with his jumps. HEROSS DU SEUIL needs to be mentioned with Hendersons record in the race but I would think he still needs to improve even tho he stayed on well enough on debut he wasn't in a toughened battle in anyway when looking held before the leader falling at the last. Both stand here so no need for a change.
QUILIXIOUS 6/1 EW (BET365) TRITONIC 12/1 EW (MOST FIRMS)
Randox Health County Hurdle
Funny enough this race is usually won by something of the pace. Now that's something I don't normally like that in a field this size. There's nothing that stands out hugely to me so I'm just going to name a couple I would have a nibble at. EDWARDSTONE has got credentials to be a likely winner, he likes to be held up in his races, he's been round here before not beaten too far, he's shared a course with the mighty Shishkin. He was a distance behind him but off 148 he can't be ignored surely. THIRD TIME LUCKY looks as tho he's had his handicap mark protected by the yard and has been set up for this race, destroyed a class 2 novice field by nine length before running down the field in his next race, further back he wasn't far behind For Pleasure who was third behind Appreciate It on the opening day. Finally MILKWOOD who has no course form but the way he finished when he was badly hampered two runs back which cost me a packet suggests he's better than a mark of 140, he is a bigger risk with no form round here tho so a bigger price is worthy of a small bet.
THIRD TIME LUCKY 8/1 EW 5 PLACES (MOST FIRMS)EDWARDSTONE 18/1 EW 7 PLACES (PADDY POWER) MILKWOOD 33/1 EW 8 PLACES (SKYBET)
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle STATTLER has been backed into a big priced favourite here but I'm not so sure he's a horse to get excited about. He beat FAKIERA last time out but the later seemed to hit a flat spot in the race losing his position before staying on again. There's reason to believe both these could be took on. Elliott has also entered FAROUKE D'ALENE who could improve on his last start having been giving a nice break in between runs. The other stable horse is TORYGRAPH who looks very interesting at his price he has done the job he has been asked so far and could well be better than a 138 rated hurdler. ADMIREL also has an entry here and may be taken down this route when you look at the opposition, he stays very well and proved he can battle all the way to the line. I wouldn't put anyone off if they were to have a nibble at him. ALAPHILIPPE could well be Fergals best chance of a winner at this year's festival, he seemed to relish the step up in distance winning a grade 2 by 14 length without being asked for anything. He travels powerfully and will happily settle in behind runners in a nice pitch or closer to the pace if needed which gives him that little bit of a advantage. Both in the race and a decent price on ALAPHILIPPE. TORYGRAPH 12/1 EW (MOST FIRMS) ALAPHILIPPE 20/1 PLACEPOT (MOST FIRMS)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase The big one that every waits for and a horse looking for a hat trick in AL BOOM PHOTO leads the market and who can argue with that? Well I for one will say I backed against him two years ago and also backed against him last year. Why break a habit of a lifetime, he's far too short for me in this Gold Cup with fresh challengers. He beat SANTINI (my selection last year) by a neck, now that form isn't exactly fantastic when you look at it now with 2nd,3rd and 4th all beat easy since. There's not one person that can tell me he's in anyway other than the peoplthat back him because Mullins is his trainer. SANTINI opposes again and there's talk of cheekpieces or blinkers fitted for the race but he's not the quickest over his fences and is just a plodder in my opinion. CHAMP could well go this route, thoughts on him are… he's good enough ability wise however that was a freak win with Barry not giving up last year. He has to prove he stays the trip and he's clumsy at his fences at times and he's going to have horses pressuring him all the way here. Is he really a 5/1 shot? Not for me. A PLUS TARD now this is an interesting contender, he travels strongly, he's won at the course, he looked very strong staying 3 mile last time so the extra two furlongs could well be a positive but that does leave that question of can he stay? FRODON will want that easy lead and we know Bryony will take the ride who gets on with him so well, Will he get that lead? Will he stay the trip getting hassled for the lead? I'm going to say no on past history. For me he should be out at double his price personally. ROYALE PAGAILLE is a potential horse to line up here, I think they will chance it being perfectly honest from what we have seen so far and the race being so wide open. Williams from my knowledge has never had a horse that has shown this standard before and with Ricci's asowners that will be the prize they want. The ground turns up soft or worse this horse has to be considered and that's a must. NATIVE RIVER, LOSTINTRANSLATION, MELON all have so many question marks, I couldn't consider them in this race. KEMBOY and MINELLA INDO last two to mention, can the former line up here as well? I think he might as an outside chance fore Mullins but he shouldn't be in the top 4 on his form. Back to MINELLA INDO the horse that looked to have won last year when CHAMP flew past him at the finish to win. On his form last season he could be looked at but a fall and a shocker on his last two runs he has it all to prove again. No need for changes liking this day now.
A PLUS TARD 13/2 EW (BET365) ROYALE PAGAILLE 10/1 PLACEPOT (MOST FIRMS)
Foxhunters Chase There's a twist this year tho when it's hard enough with amateur we have to see who's riding what this year with them being ruled out unfortunately. BILLAWAY goes into this the right favourite in what will be a huge field as normal. He stays well, handles most ground and was clear favourite in this race last year finishing 2nd, may be there to be shot at again. BOB AND CO has went from strength to strength this season and looks as tho Maxwell would of had his dream chance with this horse. IT CAME TO PASS won this last year by 10 length, can he do again? Can't be a no but has only ran once since that day and even prior to that says he's never been anywhere near that standard. HIGHWAY JEWEL could be an interesting runner having come from the PTP scene and only had one start over fences since going under rules, that day she went off 2/1 2nd favourite was behind early doors made a couple mistakes, got outpaced turning for home and made up more than 8 length from the last to lose by ¾ of a length. More experience and extra distance looks sure to suit her and could be over looked. HAZEL HILL looks set to return after winning the race two years ago, we know he stays and showed he still has it when returning after a lengthy lay off for two big runs looking like he's tuned up for this race. STAND UP AND FIGHT is a huge price and looks as if he's got this panned out and is very well handicapped. He has already beat the favourite back in November quite easily before finished fourth last time out but if you look at that race he was never there to win it, he was there to be prepped for a bigger target. HIGHWAY JEWEL Pulled now but I really like STAND UP AND FIGHT. Saver with BOB AND CO. STAND UP AND FIGHT 25/1 EW (MOST FIRMS) HIGHWAY JEWEL 16/1 PLACEPOT (BET365) N/R BOB AND CO 9/2 WIN (MOST FIRMS Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase This race looks as tho ELIMAY will take some pegging beaten. Staying on nicely behind another festival favourite Allaho pulling 79 length clear of 3rd then turned out 2 weeks later winning easily. COLREEVY is 2nd in the market but has three entries at the festival unsure where she will end up. If she was to turn up here she would have to beat her stable mate, which couldmake it a bit more interesting considering she front runs and the favourite likes to have something to aim at. PUT THE KETTLE is still entered here but I really think they will go down Champion Chase route with her. However if they did decide to turn up here I think she's much more interesting at her price. ANNIE MC is taken her chance because there's no where else for Jonjo to go with her now. She has earned her chance on the big stage but will have to improve again. SHATTERED LOVE an ex Gold Cup and Ryanair entry is now back and lining up here, she is good enough to run well and has won here before two year ago but on the other three occasions has failed to land a blow and she isn't getting any younger. Another Mullins runner who could be interesting ROBIN DE CARLOW could of well went under the radar, beat PUT THE KETTLE last time out and is still unexposed over fences, she stays very well but has a slight concern that she has been off the track since that run in October 2019. So here's hoping she's going to turn up. ROBIN DE CARLOW doesn't get her place but ELIMAY at 9/4
ELIMAY 9/4 WIN (BET365) ROBIN DE CARLOW 20/1 PLACEPOT (MOST FIRMS) N/R
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
I will be reviewing this race again once the decs are made but looking at what looks likely to be here are two Elliott runners who seems to like a winner in this race. WIDE RECEIVER a horse who was thought highly of when they got him but never really lived up to expectations. GRAND PARADIS who has won two of his three races nicely and came fourth on his hurdling debut going off a 7/4 favourite. He showed a clean pair of heels to a Mullins hotpot last time out winning by nine length, he is very lightly raced as could come on alot more. Review was needed with both mentioned being pulled. Put GRAND PARADIS in your trackers. Hopefully after we have enjoyed the four days MILL GREEN will hopefully land the spoils, he ran in this race last year and was unlucky under this jockey. Looks as tho he's been laid out for it again off the same mark. LANGER DAN also ran a decent race here last time and is in for a nice bonus if he lands this. He's not badly handicapped and comes into this off the back of a lovely class 1 win at Sandown. LEONCAVALLO for David Pipe in this race surely has to be considered. He won off one pound lower by thirteen length before being took back on the flat to protect his mark and stay fit. So since it's the final time the tape will be released on this year I will have a small go on the three off them.
LANGER DAN 6/1 EW 4 PLACES (BET365) LEONCAVALLO 25/1 EW 5 PLACES (BETVICTOR) MILL GREEN 28/1 EW 6 PLACES (SKYBET) Over and out I hope you all enjoyed the festival as much as I have
